Kalshi projects Tina Kotek (D) will win the 2026 Oregon governor race, defeating Christine Drazan (R). Traders on Kalshi priced Kotek's chances at 99%, up from 89.9% when polls closed. Kotek's win gives her a second term and extends a Democratic hold on the office that dates to 1987.
How the market moved
Kalshi's Oregon governor market, through Nov 3, 2026: Kotek traded near 80% in the final weeks, and Kotek was at 99% at projection.
Kotek faced Drazan in a rematch of 2022, when Kotek won by about 3 points in a three-way race.
Oct 18, 2026: Kotek traded at 79% as polls showed a near-tie
Oct 23, 2026: Kotek rose to 82%
Polls were far closer than the market: Kalshi's polling average had Kotek at 45.1% and Drazan at 44.7%.
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