Kalshi projects Troy Jackson (D) will win the 2026 Maine Senate race, defeating Susan Collins (R). Traders on Kalshi priced Jackson's chances at 99%, up from 77% when polls closed. The win flips a Republican-held seat, the first Democratic Senate win in Maine since 1988, and adds to the new Democratic majority.
How the market moved
Kalshi's Maine Senate market, January 2026 to Nov 3, 2026: Democrats opened the year at 67%, and Jackson was at 99% at projection.
Graham Platner won the Democratic primary in June 2026 but withdrew in July 2026, and party delegates picked Jackson, a former Maine Senate president, on July 25, 2026.
Late polls moved toward Jackson: a mid-October 2026 Fox News poll had the race tied at 49%, but final polls from the University of New Hampshire and New York Times/Siena had him up 9 and 6 points.
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