Kalshi traders have increased their expectations that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will be impeached after Rep. Thomas Massie moved to force a House vote.
Kalshi's Hegseth impeachment market shows a 77% chance of impeachment before Nov. 21, 86% before Dec. 31, and 87% before April 1.
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Traders assign lower probabilities to Hegseth leaving office than to his impeachment
Kalshi's Hegseth departure market puts his chances of leaving office at 42% by year's end, 64% before Feb. 1, and 74% before April 1.
Articles of impeachment
Massie reintroduced articles of impeachment against Hegseth on Nov. 9.
ABC News reported that Massie introduced the privileged resolution on the House floor on the afternoon of Nov. 9.
“Massie needs a simple majority for the impeachment resolution to succeed in the House, meaning that just three Republicans need to vote with all Democrats to prevail,” ABC News reported.
The Associated Press reported that Massie tried to bring articles of impeachment against Hegseth in September 2026. Speaker Mike Johnson closed the House early and sent lawmakers home until after the midterm elections, delaying a vote on the measure. Johnson denied that his decision to call a recess had anything to do with Massie’s measure.
Hegseth responded that he is “not worried” about the impeachment measure.
“We’re going to do a press conference tomorrow morning at the Pentagon on that very topic,” Hegseth told reporters. “So I’ll save my remarks there. I hope you all come loaded for bear with your questions.”
Will it pass?
Axios reported that some Republican leaders “are bracing for enough GOP defections to impeach” Hegseth when the measure comes to a vote.
“Republicans who were defeated in Tuesday’s election-night bloodbath have little left to lose and could be more willing to back impeaching Hegseth, whose overall support has eroded since the start of the Iran war,” Axios wrote.
Some Republicans have also expressed reservations about Hegseth. Rep. Don Bacon told Fox News that Hegseth does not have “a lot of love.” Bacon also told Axios that he has not decided how he plans to vote on the impeachment measure.
House Republicans are still reeling from the midterm elections that will give Democrats control of the House and Senate in 2027. Some Republican lawmakers have blamed the war in Iran for the party's midterm losses, adding to the political pressure on Hegseth.
“Iran, Iran, Iran…We should have never done the war before the midterms,” an unidentified GOP lawmaker said.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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