The Democratic nomination of Illinois’ 9th Congressional District is up for grabs tonight as registered voters of the Prairie State vote in primary elections. Notably, the seat is currently held by incumbent Jan Schakowsky, who is not seeking re-election for the first time since winning the district in 1998.
As a result, the field is quite crowded, as 16 candidates look to replace the longtime congresswoman. However, with less than two hours before polls close, Kalshi traders price Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss as the heavy favorite with a 78% chance of victory.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice.
IL-09 Democratic nomination
As referenced, Mayor Biss shows a 78% probability to win the Democratic nomination for Illinois’ 9th Congressional District. Traders also price independent journalist Kat Abughazaleh at 22¢.
Biss has been the Mayor of Evanston, IL, which is part of IL-09, since 2021. Previously, he served in the state House of Representatives and state Senate. Biss also taught math at the University of Chicago until 2008.
Abughazaleh, aka “Kat Abu,” comes from a media background. She is a 26-year-old native of Texas who rose to prominence via social media after graduating from George Washington University. Abughazaleh gained significant traction online after taking critical stances against Tucker Carlson’s reports on Fox News.
Along with Biss and Kat Abu, Illinois state Senator Laura Fine has garnered notable fundraising and polling in hopes of winning the 9th District. Regardless, Kalshi’s traders are giving Senator Fine only a two percent chance of making that a reality.
IL-09 Margin of Victory
In Kalshi’s “Margin of Victory” market for IL-09, “Biss by 4-8%” is showing a 29¢ price tag. From there, “Biss by 0-4%” is positioned as the second-most likely trading option at 24%.
For Abughazaleh, Kalshi traders price the odds of her winning IL-09 with a “0-4%” MOV at a 22% clip.
GOP Nominee
Keep in mind, the winner here will take on the 9th District’s GOP nominee later this year. Currently, in the GOP Nominee market, Kalshi’s traders are bullish on John Elleson (92¢), who is a pastor from Arlington Heights.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now forecast:
Who will be the Democratic nominee for Illinois’ 9th District?
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