Chris Cillizza is a veteran political analyst with more than two decades of experience covering politics for major news outlets including The Washington Post and CNN. He joins Kalshi News as a guest commentator covering the 2026 midterms. Follow him on Substack and YouTube.
The battle for the House majority is, at this point, not much of a battle.
According to Kalshi’s overall House control market, Democrats have a 92% chance to net the three seats they need to retake the majority from Republicans on Tuesday.
That’s the highest Democrats’ chances have been in Kalshi since the start of the 2026 election cycle almost two years ago. (The lowest Democrats’ chances ever got was 56.7% in November 2025.)
With very little drama left in the overall House majority fight, most sharp political types and traders have turned to the more intriguing question of just how big a night it will be for Democrats in the House and Senate.
As in, are we talking about a Blue Trickle, a Blue Wave or a Blue Tsunami?
I checked into the Kalshi markets for those various scenarios. Here’s what you need to know.
(Visit Kalshi’s Midterm Election Hub for the latest odds on every race).
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
Blue Trickle
Kalshi defines a blue trickle as Democrats at 215+ House seats (a three-seat gain from the 212 seats the party currently controls) and 48+ seats in the Senate (a net gain of one from Democrats’ current 47).
Traders see a 92% chance of that outcome, which is down from a high near 95% less than a week ago.
I have to assume that slight loss of confidence in the market is simply people hedging against a near-sure thing – or Democratic traders getting nervous that the national political environment is too good to be true.
Blue Wave
Under this scenario, Democrats hold at least 218 House seats and 49 Senate seats – meaning they retake the House majority but fail to regain Senate control.
Those odds sit at 83.9% and, like the “Blue Trickle” scenario, are down slightly from a week ago.
My sense is that that number is slightly too low. Most political prognosticators and modelers generally have the House range as a Democratic pickup of between 12 and 22 seats and the Senate as Democrats netting three to five seats.
Blue Tsunami
The “tsunami” scenario gives Democrats 235+ House seats (a gain of 20+) and 51 Senate seats (a net gain of four).
Interestingly, unlike the other two “blue” outcomes, traders are getting more bullish on this one as the election draws nearer. There is currently a better than 60% probability of the “tsunami” scenario – say that five times fast! – in the market, the highest that number has ever been on Kalshi.
Red Wave
A contrarian and think the election is going to be better for Republicans than pundits are saying?
You can get in on the “red wave” market – House Republicans hold 225+ seats and the Senate GOP controls 55+ seats – although the odds are long on that one. Traders see a less than 6% probability that conventional wisdom totally misses and Republicans, not Democrats, wind up having the big night on Tuesday.
In terms of the volume of each of these markets, it looks like this:
Blue wave: $3 million+
Blue tsunami: $1 million+
Red wave: $300,000+
Blue trickle: $32,000+
My take? I think the value in the market remains on the highest end of gains for Democrats. All of our traditional metrics – historical results, generic ballot polling, presidential approval, special election results, early vote etc. – are ALL pointing toward a MAJOR wave for Democrats.
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