Democrat Mary Peltola continues to lead Kalshi's Alaska Senate market following a New York Times investigation into efforts to recruit additional candidates for the race.
Kalshi's Alaska Senate winner market shows Peltola leading at 67%, down from 75% on October 26th, followed by incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan at 33%.
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Ballot-stacking scandal
The New York Times reported that political operatives sought to recruit candidates with names similar to Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan's for Alaska's Senate race.
The Times reported that people connected to Peltola's campaign participated in efforts to recruit Dan J. Sullivan and other potential candidates who could draw votes away from the Republican incumbent.
The recruitment effort started in the summer of 2025 when one of Peltola’s staffers “received unusual instructions from top campaign aides: Find as many people named Dan Sullivan in Alaska as you can.”
“This was no random request,” The Times wrote. “Dan S. Sullivan is the name of the state’s Republican senator. And if the Peltola campaign or its allies could track down and persuade another Dan Sullivan to run for Senate, the confusion could cost the senator crucial voters on the state’s unusual, four-person ballot.”
The campaign found Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher who lived in a remote fishing village on Alaska’s Panhandle.
The Peltola campaign denied any efforts to confuse voters or stack the ballot, but The Times conducted extensive interviews and examined campaign text messages showing “that not only did Ms. Peltola’s team work with people trying to recruit Mr. Sullivan to run for Senate, but the effort was much broader. The group worked to coax other would-be spoilers into the race, to dilute the incumbent’s support and help catapult the Democrat to victory.”
The allegations have also prompted a response from Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy, who ordered an investigation into the reported recruitment efforts. The Associated Press reported that Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy ordered an investigation into Peltola’s campaign and any efforts to stack the ballot with similarly named candidates.
The allegations follow a separate Justice Department lawsuit concerning certification of the Senate election results. A previous Kalshi News story published last week reported that the Department of Justice filed a lawsuit seeking to block certification of the outcome of the Alaska Senate race if Dan Sullivan fails to win the seat. The Associated Press also reported that the DOJ lawsuit seeks to stop the certification as long as Daniel J. Sullivan remains on the ballot.
Alaska’s governor’s race
Meanwhile, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins also holds a substantial lead in Kalshi's Alaska governor's race market.
The market shows Kreiss-Tomkins at 88%, compared with 11% for Republican Bernadette Wilson.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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