Democrat Adam Hamilton has moved ahead of Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in Kalshi's Kansas Senate market after the candidates were tied a day earlier.
Hamilton's price in Kalshi's Kansas Senate winner market rose to 51%, compared with 49% for Marshall, after both candidates stood at 50% Thursday.
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What do the polls say?
A new CNN poll shows a competitive Senate race in Kansas, a state Trump carried by approximately 16 percentage points in 2024.
The Hill reported that the latest CNN poll released Thursday found Hamilton leading Marshall 49% to 45% among likely voters.
“One reason Hamilton may be running ahead of Marshall is that he is viewed much more favorably than his party or his opponent,” The Hill reported. “Voters have a net positive view of Hamilton by a 3-point margin, and a net negative view of Marshall by a 17-point margin.”
Trump's rallies back on schedule
Two previously canceled Trump campaign rallies in Kansas and Iowa are back on the schedule.
The Guardian reported that on Thursday, the Republican National Committee announced the president would not be in Kansas and Iowa for two Senate candidate rallies. Instead, he would participate in “a large number of tele-rallies” for the states since it felt the party was in a “strong position” in Kansas and Iowa.
President Trump told reporters he believed both states were strong enough to merit the cancellations. He also lashed out at a Reuters reporter who questioned the decision, asking the president if he was sick of traveling across the country.
Then on Friday morning, a source familiar with the matter told The Guardian that the rallies are “back on” in both states.
A strong chance in Kansas
Although Kansas has favored Republicans in recent federal elections, Democrats point to past gubernatorial victories and recent polling as evidence that the Senate race is competitive.
The Dispatch noted that Democrats have won recent gubernatorial elections in Kansas, including Laura Kelly's victories in 2018 and 2022. Democrat Laura Kelly defeated Republican Kris Kobach for Kansas governor in 2018 during President Trump’s first midterm and won re-election in 2022 when “Trump’s approval rating was significantly better than it is now.”
Hamilton has also secured endorsements from former Republican Kansas governors Mike Hayden and Bill Graves.
Republican internal polling has also reportedly raised concerns about Marshall's reelection prospects.
“Internal polling has made Republicans concerned enough to invest tens of millions of dollars and dispatch President Donald Trump to two Kansas rallies for Marshall this month,” The Dispatch wrote.
With Election Day approaching, Kansas has become an increasingly competitive Senate battleground. Hamilton's narrow lead in the Kalshi market comes as Republicans prepare for Trump's return to the campaign trail and both parties make their final appeals to voters.
Kansas Governor’s race
Kalshi's Kansas governor market shows a substantial gap between the two parties.
Republican Ty Masterson holds a strong lead on the market at 72%, followed by Democrat Cindy Holscher at 28%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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