On Sunday, President Donald Trump spoke at a campaign rally in Dubuque, Iowa ahead of Election Day as the Senate seat race remains closely contested.
Prediction market-implied odds of Republican Ashley Hinson winning the Iowa Senate seat have dropped to 52%, a four percentage point decrease in the last 24 hours. Democrat Josh Turek’s chances have become more competitive at 48%, according to Kalshi’s event contract on the Iowa Senate winner. The drop comes as a new poll from the New York Times/Siena poll shows Turek with a slight lead over Hinson, but still within the margin of error.
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After he congratulated the Iowa Hawkeyes for their 30-0 win against Wisconsin, Trump predicted the Republican Party will have a “much bigger win” on Tuesday with voters electing Ashley Hinson to the Senate. “We’re going to elect ‘America first’ Republicans up and down the line,” he said.
About 432,000 registered voters in Iowa cast an early ballot so far, with 47% coming from Democrats, and 34% stemming from Republicans, according to NBC News citing data provided by TargetSmart.
Hinson “entered the race with more name recognition, more campaign cash and, strategists in both parties privately say, more obvious political talent than some of her party’s other top Senate nominees,’ per The New York Times.
Even though she has yet to trail her opponent in prediction market-implied odds, her lead has shrunk as her odds have fallen to a new low at 52%.
Facing scrutiny
Trump’s remarks in Iowa and Hinson’s falling odds come as the Democratic nominee is facing scrutiny from party members over an advertisement on transgender sports and gender affirming care, The Hill reported on Sunday. Turek said in the ad, “I oppose males competing in female sports, something that is already illegal in Iowa. I’m against taxpayers paying for sex changes too.”
While Turek is the Democratic nominee, his comments align with Trump, who at the Iowa rally reaffirmed his commitment to enshrine in permanent law “no men in woman sports and no transgender mutilation of our children.”
Turek’s advertisement discouraged Kathy Winter, a Democratic chairman of a rural Iowa county, from voting for him, because his stance “runs afoul” of the party’s platform, The Washington Post reported on Saturday.
Polling data guru Nate Silver’s forecast for the Iowa Senate race shows Turek leading at 47.3% compared to Hinson at 46.5%. The Democratic nominee was also leading against Hinson, 50% to 49%, according to a Forbes Sunday report, citing a YouGov poll of 2,020 likely voters, conducted Oct. 26 to 29.
Still, Kalshi traders forecast Hinson’s margin of victory to be 1.1 points, an increase from 0.1 on Oct. 29.
The takeaway:
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