Iowa Senate odds: Hinson leads Turek 55%-45% as race tightens

The race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is tightening in Kalshi's Iowa Senate market.

Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson leads Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek 55% to 45% in Kalshi's Iowa Senate winner market.

The narrowing odds come as President Donald Trump's campaign announced it was rescheduling an Iowa rally that the Republicans had previously canceled.

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A recent Marist poll shows Turek leading Hinson by eight percentage points, despite Hinson's advantage in the Kalshi market.

The Hill reported that the latest Marist poll shows Hinson trailing Turek by eight points.

“Around 50 percent of respondents to Marist’s latest poll said they plan to vote for Turek in November, while 42 percent said the same of Hinson,” The Hill reported. “Two percent said they are going to back someone else, while 5 percent were unsure on their vote choice or did not answer.”

Despite Turek's lead in the poll, 59% of respondents said they expected Hinson to win the election. A Democrat has not won a U.S. Senate election in Iowa since 2008.

The New York Times reported Thursday that Republicans canceled two upcoming Trump rallies: a Saturday appearance in Kansas for Sen. Roger Marshall and a Sunday appearance in Iowa for Hinson.

“It said they were canceled because Republicans were doing well enough in races in those states that they did not need Mr. Trump to try to shore up support, despite polls showing the party’s majority control of Congress is increasingly at risk,” The Times wrote. 

NBC News now reported that Trump will appear at a Republican rally in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, rather than at the originally scheduled location. Trump is also scheduled to participate in several tele-rallies before Election Day.

Although the Marist poll shows Turek ahead, other October surveys have indicated a closer contest, with some showing Hinson holding a narrow lead.

NewsNation reported that Hinson has consolidated Republican support in some October polls, although concerns about tariffs, fuel prices and the war in Iran remain issues in the race.

“Some October polls show Hinson slightly ahead as she consolidates GOP support while saying she’ll push back on the White House on some issues, like suspending Russian sanctions and striking diesel deals,” NewsNation wrote. “Trump rallied for Hinson in Sioux City Oct. 22, but farmers’ worries over tariffs, diesel and the Iran war pose risks for Republicans.”

With Election Day approaching, Iowa's Senate race remains a closely watched contest as Republicans seek to retain the seat being vacated by Ernst. While the latest Marist poll shows Turek ahead, Kalshi traders continue to price Hinson as the more likely winner, highlighting the difference between voter preferences and market expectations.

Kalshi's Iowa governor market shows a wider gap between the two parties.

The Iowa governor winner market shows Democrat Rob Sand leading at 85%, followed by Republican Zach Lahn at 15%.

The takeaway:

Kalshi markets now predict:

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