The chances Kansas elects its first Democratic senator in nearly a century have become slightly better than a coin flip.
Odds of Democrat Adam Hamilton winning the Kansas Senate seat rose around 14 percentage points to 54% in the past week, the largest lead ever for the founder and pastor of the largest United Methodist congregation in the country. His chances have since dropped one point, and are at 53% at the time of this writing.
Meanwhile, Republican incumbent Roger Marshall’s chances fell to an all-time low at 46%, a drop from 60% in the same period, according to Kalshi’s event contracts on the Kansas Senate winner.
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Hamilton’s freshly acquired lead comes as Trump is slated to speak at Salina Regional Airport on Sunday evening, aiming to help secure a victory for incumbent Roger Marshall, according to a Sunday report from The Wichita Eagle. The president previously rallied in Park City on Oct. 19.
Defending billing practices
“Marshall must also overcome a series of unflattering news coverage of his billing practices as a rural physician, longstanding questions about his Kansas residency and blurred lines between Senate staff and campaign resources,” said The Wichita Eagle.
The Washington Post reported on Sunday how Marshall, who has practiced as an OB-GYN for decades, is defending against criticism of his treatment of patients. Marshall and his practice have sued over 700 patients for medical debts.
In an online video the first-term incumbent said, “To ensure that 40,000 Kansans would still have access to care, we did have to keep the lights on. So we occasionally handed some accounts over to collection agencies.”
About 21% of over 2 million registered voters in Kansas have cast an early ballot so far, with Republicans accounting for 44% and Democrats 41%, per NBC News citing data provided from TargetSmart.
What the polls and forecasts say
Fox News updated its forecast, moving Kansas to a toss-up race from one that leaned Republican. “Kansas is a conservative stronghold, but Republicans are spending too much time and money relative to other states to conclude that Sen. Roger Marshall has an edge over Democrat Adam Hamilton,” per a Sunday report from Fox News.
Meanwhile, polling analyst Nate Silver’s forecast shows Hamilton leading by 2.7 points, 49.2% to 46.5%.
The Washington Post plus George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government conducted a survey on the Kansas Senate race, reaching out to voters last week on the contest that could potentially result in the first Democrat to represent Kansas in the Senate since the Great Depression.
“After more than 85,000 phone calls and nearly 50,000 text messages, a potential problem emerged,” The Post said in a Friday report. “Registered Democrats were more than twice as likely as registered Republicans to complete the survey after answering an interview’s call.”
The consequence: “There’s good reason to suspect that the poll overestimates Democratic candidates’ support.” The poll of 801 likely voters in Kansas, fielded Oct. 22 to 26, showed Democrat Adam Hamilton at 52% and Republican Roger Marshall at 43%. The margin of error is 3.9 percentage points.
“The nine-point Democratic advantage in the Senate race is a clear outlier from the other nine polls released since mid-September, which range from a five-point lead in polling sponsored by Hamilton’s campaign to a one-point edge for Marshall.”
The survey also shows “larger defections” from President Donald Trump’s core constituency compared to other polls. “26 percent of likely voters who voted for him in 2024 now disapproving of his performance,” The Post said.
Elsewhere, Kalshi traders forecast Hamilton’s margin of victory to be less than one percentage point.
The takeaway:
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