Exit odds climb for Iran’s Supreme Leader

Ali Khamenei’s odds of exiting his role as Iran’s Supreme Leader are on the rise.

Kalshi traders now price his odds of leaving office before September 1 at 48%. The odds of Khamenei no longer being in power before July 1 have also climbed to 41%, while his odds of being gone by April 11 are now priced at 22%.

Tensions are rising between Iran and the U.S. over its nuclear program. The Wall Street Journal reports that Vice President JD Vance claims Iran has “failed to acknowledge core U.S. demands in talks.” Now, Washington has given Tehran two weeks to meet certain guidelines such as moving its near weapons-grade uranium offshore.

President Donald Trump also told reporters on Monday that Iran wants to come to an agreeable conclusion over nuclear talks.

“They wanted to make a deal,” Trump claimed.

At the moment, Kalshi’s market on the possibility of the U.S. and Iran reaching a nuclear deal paints a less optimistic picture. Traders now price the odds of a deal before April at 22%. Odds of a deal before the end of the year have also fallen to 40%.

Tension is also building in the Strait of Hormuz. Markets now price a 39% chance that Iran will close the waterway at some point this year.

Kalshi markets now predict:

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