Jay-Z's odds jump to 50% in Kalshi's Super Bowl LXI halftime show market

Jay-Z has emerged as the odds-on favorite for Super Bowl LXI halftime headliner.

The market for the Super Bowl halftime show has Jay-Z leading at 50%, followed by Harry Styles at 34%, Miley Cyrus at 29%, and Justin Bieber at 13%.

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Jay-Z's position atop the market comes amid continued speculation about who Roc Nation and the NFL will select for the Super Bowl LXI halftime show.

Jay-Z and Roc Nation have worked with the NFL on its live music strategy since 2019, with Roc Nation helping produce the Super Bowl halftime show. The NFL has not announced a headliner for Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium.

Marca.com has speculated that the recent controversy surrounding Macklemore's removal from Ed Sheeran's tour could complicate the search for a Super Bowl headliner. The rapper Macklemore made some pro-Palestinian statements while opening for Ed Sheeran's show. The Messina Touring Group, the promotion company for Sheeran's LOOP Tour, dropped Macklemore from future shows due to objections from Gillette Stadium owner Robert Kraft and other venue owners.

“Ed told me that Kraft said I would not be allowed to perform in his stadium,” Macklemore wrote on his Instagram page after the announcement was made that he would no longer be part of Sheeran’s tour. “Ed also told me that Kraft had rallied some of the other stadium owners and collectively they gave him an ultimatum: if Macklemore stays on the tour, you will not be allowed to play in our venues.”  

Sheeran's remaining opening acts withdrew from the tour in solidarity with Macklemore. Marca argued that the controversy illustrates the political considerations artists could face when deciding whether to accept a high-profile performance such as the Super Bowl halftime show.

“The Super Bowl halftime show is unpaid, according to reporting, meaning artists may weigh the enormous exposure against the possibility of political controversy and intense public scrutiny,” Marca wrote.

Cyrus previously led the market at 63%, but her price has since fallen 34 percentage points to 29%.

A previous Kalshi article timed the news of Cyrus' possible halftime show performance to the release of Cyrus' 10^th studio album, Bass Persuades, putting her at the top of the Kalshi market for the Super Bowl halftime show. She also announced two performances at the Hollywood Bowl after previously expressing reluctance to return to traditional touring.

Bieber's price climbed on the halftime show market after a surprise musical appearance during the World Cup Final halftime show where he was introduced by Ted Lasso stars Jason Sudeikis and Brendan Hunt.

TMZ reported, citing unnamed sources, that Bieber and Harry Styles are on Jay-Z's "wish list" for the halftime show, although neither had been approached at the time of the report.

“We’re told Justin and Harry have not been approached about the show yet…and sources tell us Justin and Harry are both unlikely to take the gig if they are finally approached,” TMZ wrote.

Styles has climbed to second on the halftime show market at 34%, up significantly from his position at the time of the TMZ report. His rise comes despite the same report noting that sources close to Styles considered him unlikely to accept the gig if approached.

Kalshi markets now predict:

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