The Kalshi guide to potential halftime headliners 🏈

Every February, the two best teams in professional football (or at least two teams who got hot in January) play each other in a championship game. Maybe you’ve heard about this? It’s kind of a big deal. They show it on TV, and everything.

Overall, I enjoy it very much, except for one 30-minute stretch right smack dab in the middle of the game known as the halftime show.

Don’t get me wrong. I can totally see how you would be into the halftime show if you were a 12-year-old girl, or if you are someone who enjoys watching a grown man use the power of song to vaguely accuse another man of pedophilia.

But I’m just not the target audience for this sort of show. I watch sports to tune out the real world. If I wanted to watch two men accuse each other of being child molesters, I’d stick to national politics, thank you very much.

So if I hate the halftime show so much, why am I bringing it up four-and-a-half months early? Because, late September is normally when the halftime performer is announced (2020 gets a pass because of Covid).

At the end of the day, my love of prediction markets trumps my hatred of halftime shows. So here’s a look at what Kalshi’s markets are forecasting for the 2026 performance.

The current favorite to perform at this year’s halftime show is Adele. And that makes sense, since a source tells me she’s already been approached with an offer to perform.

My source also points out that Adele’s fiancé is a huge sports agent who is well connected with the league, which could help her chances.

Then again, my “source” is just a gossip columnist from the NY Post. But I trust her. After all, it’s not like Rupert Murdoch is going to hire someone who isn’t on the up and up (not trading advice).

The second most likely candidate to perform at the 2026 halftime show is Taylor Swift. And given her recent engagement to Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce, as well as her attendance at several games over the past few seasons, including last year’s championship, it’s sort of surprising that she isn’t in the #1 spot. Hell, a few weeks back, the league’s commissioner even named her as a contender.

That said, performers usually agree to do the halftime show for the exposure they will receive, rather than financial compensation. And Taylor Swift is possibly the most overexposed person on the planet. In other words, she doesn’t need the exposure, and the league has so many options that it doesn’t need to pay her.

This explains recent reports claiming the singer and the league were unable to agree on terms. Then again, there have also been recent reports of an underwater base that is home to ancient UAPs, so be sure and do your own research.

Next is Miley Cyrus, who actually did perform at the pro-football championship in 2021, but not during halftime. She performed at a pre-game concert celebrating vaccinated frontline medical workers, which means there’s a chance she may be deported before the game takes place.

But last week, Miley Cyrus’ odds climbed out of the single digits and are now hovering just below 20%.

Why?

Press reports claim it’s due to a rumor posted by an X user with about 2500 followers.

This person claims to be “Miley Cyrus #1 fan,” an “Anti-bullying advocate, ” and someone who is “Spreading love and positivity.”

Speaking of love and positivity, this week, the same account accused Cyrus of hanging out with an “alleged pedo,” and then laughed about someone calling her a “b*tch.”

Personally, I’m a little skeptical of this source. Besides, you should never listen to an account with less than 5K followers. Trust me on this (not trading advice!).

Like Miley, Post Malone has previously performed at the championship. He sang America the Beautiful during last year’s pregame. During last year’s game, he also appeared in a Bud Light commercial centered around a suburban cul-de-sac, which is funny, since suburban cul-de-sacs were invented to keep guys with face tatts away from the normies.

At any rate, Malone currently has a 16% chance of landing the halftime gig.

According to Rolling Stone, Bad Bunny recently ended a “historic” 11-week residency in Puerto Rico. And while historians are now left to debate the monumental impact of a man gyrating on a stage while singing songs, Bad Bunny himself is already planning a world tour that starts in November.

Given that the tour is scheduled to be in South America next February, he would probably have to postpone or cancel several shows in order to accept the halftime gig, which isn’t impossible, but does seem unlikely.

However, if the league chose an artist who only sings in Spanish, can you imagine the rage posts that would emanate from the White House? They might as well trans Al Michaels while they’re at it.

Even so, our market still shows Bad Bunny with a 15% chance.

Metallica was formed in 1981, which means they’ve been playing for nearly 45 years. That might seem like way too old of an act to be playing the halftime show, but back in 2010, The Who landed the gig after 46 years, so it’s not impossible.

That said, 2010 was also the last time a rock band performed at the game, which might be one of the reasons traders currently price Metallica’s chances at only 12%.

Looks like my dream of Roger Goodell being forced to sit through “So What?” might have to wait until next year.

Last and least is Sabrina Carpenter, who has only a 10% chance of headlining the halftime show. Although those odds may be dropping now that she’s getting blowback for some stupid quotes from a Vogue Italia interview.

“You learn more about life in a 20-minute conversation with someone from Italy than in 20 years in the U.S.,” Carpenter said.

I once had a 20-minute conversation with an Italian cabbie who had a picture of Mussolini on his dashboard. I didn’t walk away feeling too enlightened.

At any rate, Carpenter also went on to refer to men as a separate species that needs to be trained.

Back in the day, I might have gotten upset by an actress from Girl Meets World saying something stupid like this. But now that I’m forced to read the news all day, every day, these quotes barely even register. I’ll hear an elected official say something far dumber by noon today.

Besides, she has a certain je ne sais quoi that makes it hard for me to stay mad at her.

I forgive you, Sabrina! But I wouldn’t trade on you here (not trading advice!).

When I say “the field,” I am not talking about a Swedish DJ (although maybe we can add him as an option). I’m talking about the dozens of other artists who are not listed above but still might get picked to perform at this year’s show.

We’ve highlighted the top contenders, but if you’re interested in the long shots, you can click here to see a much more extensive list.

Happy trading.

Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realOldTerry
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}