Aim high with this week's Kalshi Kit

When the consensus is too low, it pays to aim high

In last week's Kalshi Kit, we discussed how in 2024 experts have repeatedly missed the mark on the monthly jobs report by aiming too low. Well, March's jobs numbers were no exception. Wall Street was predicting between 150,000 to 200,000 new jobs for the month. But a whopping 303,000 new hires were reported, blowing everyone's predictions out of the water, including the Kalshi market consensus of 214,000.

However, we also talked about how our traders priced in a 35% chance that 250,000 or more jobs would be added, and nearly a 20% chance of job growth at or above 300,000. And sure enough, the savvy traders who contributed to those prices by buying well above the consensus numbers were rewarded.

This week, we saw something similar play out with the March CPI report. Nearly all of Wall Street, as well as the Kalshi CPI market consensus, predicted March's year-over-year CPI to come in at 3.4%. And in all fairness, they were close.

But Kalshi traders priced in a 16% chance of YoY CPI at 3.5%. And many who took that trade were handsomely rewarded.For example, PrinceHal made a 44.91% ROI on CPI, bringing in over $17,000.

Another trader (SLAIS) who has been bearish on Fed rate cuts saw his portfolio climb almost $50,000 on this week's report.It just goes to show that in 2024 (so far), it pays to aim high... unless you're talking about rate cuts.

Bird Flu, sick cows, scared humans

An outbreak of Bird Flu among dairy cattle in multiple states, including Texas and North Carolina, has scientists worried the disease may spread to humans. A Texas dairy worker who came into contact with infected cows recently became the second known human to contract the virus. And although the CDC insists the risk to the public is still low, it is asking states to be ready to ramp up testing should the need arise.

Currently, Kalshi's Bird Flu market forecasts a 25-percent chance that the virus will be declared a public health emergency this year. Hopefully the "No" traders win this one.Brazil bans X?

Elon Musk is taking his free speech crusade on an international road trip and is butting heads with a foreign government. Is he fighting with Russia? China? North Korea? Nope! He's going after Brazil!OK! Cool, I guess.

After initially complying with a Brazilian court order to remove social media accounts accused of spreading hate speech and false information, Musk reversed course over the weekend and reactivated the accounts in question. He then accused the Supreme Court Justice behind the order, Alexandre de Moraes, of "betraying the constitution and people of Brazil," before calling for his resignation or impeachment.

As a result, de Moraes opened a new obstruction of justice investigation into Musk and added him to an ongoing investigation of online disinformation campaigns.

Will the feud lead to X being shut down in Brazil, or is it all just political posturing?Will 'Abigail' suck blood, or just plain suck?

This week's Rotten Tomatoes market features 'Abigail,' a reimagining of the 1936 Universal Classic Monsters film 'Dracula's Daughter.' Will critics be impressed by a modern twist on an old horror favorite, or will this attempt to infuse new blood into an old bloodsucker just plain suck?Disclosure

Kalshi’s upcoming new markets and features are not guaranteed to be live. These previews are meant to provide traders and interested observers with a sneak peek into what Kalshi is building, but they are not a promise that they will eventually be live.

The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author(s). Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your particular circumstances, investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any described. Any research views expressed represent those of the individual author and do not necessarily represent the views of Kalshi or its affiliates. Any demonstrative examples are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. While Kalshi strives to provide accurate and timely information, there may be inadvertent inaccuracies, errors and omissions, for which we apologize and expressly disclaim any liability. We reserve the right to make changes and corrections at any time, without notice. The content is provided on an "AS IS," "AS AVAILABLE" Basis. Any information denoting past or historical performance is not indicative of future performance and no reliance shall be placed on such information.