Graham Platner's departure from the Maine Senate race on Wednesday threw a wrench into the makeup of a crucial midterm race. Over the Fourth of July weekend, the market was relatively still, signaling a dead heat, with the Democratic Party holding a slight edge at 51%. Monday morning, rumblings of a coming Platner bombshell story started to move the market on Platner dropping out. Later that afternoon, POLITICO reported a sexual assault allegation against Platner, spiking the odds of his exit.
As the odds of Platner dropping out rose, so did the chances of the Democratic Party winning the Maine Senate election — even as the odds of their original primary winner staying on the ballot fell. The Democratic Party now has a 63% chance of winning the statewide election in November, its highest chance since May.
The Maine Senate race is key to the Democratic path to a Senate majority. Democrats must flip four Republican-held Senate seats without losing a Democratic-held seat to win control. The four states most in play for a Democratic flip are Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Alaska. Democrats also have a competitive chance in Texas and Iowa, though those would be much tougher climbs in the heart of GOP territory. Maine's shift toward the Democrats meaningfully improved their odds of winning the Senate. Democrats now have a 44% chance of winning the Senate, compared to 40% a week ago.
The swing is not insignificant to the balance of power in American politics. KPOW, Kalshi's American Power Index rooted in prediction market data, leaned Republican at +2.80 on Monday. By Thursday, KPOW leaned Republican at just +2.10, a 25% cut into the GOP's slight lean in power.
Click here for the KPOW index.
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