New York, NY, December 22, 2025 – Kalshi today announced a new arm of the company, Kalshi Research, dedicated to supporting academic study of the burgeoning field of prediction markets. Similar to OpenAI and Anthropic’s research arms, Kalshi Research will provide researchers with access to internal platform data of the world’s largest and highest quality repository of prediction market data.
Kalshi will also host the first ever Prediction Market Conference, dedicated to gathering researchers, forecasters, traders, and community members to present the latest findings in the prediction market space.
Kalshi study compares inflation forecasts to Wall Street
In conjunction with the launch of Kalshi Research, Kalshi has released the first study done with internal data, completed by an in-house research team comparing Kalshi forecasts on inflation to Wall Street consensus forecasts.
Key findings
The study found that:
Kalshi beats Wall Street overall: When measured across all time periods and market conditions, Kalshi outperforms Wall Street by 40%.
Kalshi scores impressive win rate: Kalshi forecasts match or beat Wall Street consensus on 85% of inflation prints, when measured from one week out.
"Shock alpha”: Kalshi forecasts are even more accurate (with a 50% lower MAE) in times of “shock”, when forecasts differ greatly from the eventual result. This is particularly important, as policymakers, investors, and executives can now be confident in using Kalshi data as a strong signal of forthcoming market volatility, and be prepared to react accordingly.
Academics from Harvard, Stanford, Yale, and the University of Chicago are already signed on to work with Kalshi Research. Calls for abstracts, as well as conference registration applications, will open immediately to the public.