Kalshi election ratings measure the competitiveness of all U.S. Senate, House, and Governor seats up in each election cycle. The rating for each race is determined solely from the prices set by traders on the corresponding election market, without any editorial input from Kalshi staff. In other words, markets, not election models, determine these ratings.
The numerical probabilities for each candidate are synthesized into a dynamic election rating category. These probabilities and ratings are intended to provide an estimate of each candidate / party’s likelihood of ultimately winning the election. They may factor in polling, individual candidate attributes, the political environment, early voting data, and whatever other analysis Kalshi traders see fit.
Elections are placed into various rating categories based on two factors:
The Party / political affiliation of the leading candidate (with the highest odds) in the market
The numeric probability of the leading candidate (with the highest odds) in the market
Here are what the different rating categories mean:
Rating | Guide | Kalshi probability |
Tossup | Most competitive, with no clearly favored candidate / party | X < 60% |
Lean (D/R/other) | Still competitive, but one candidate / party has an edge | 60 <= X < 75% |
Likely (D/R/other) | Potentially competitive, with one candidate / party clearly favored | 75% <= X < 90% |
Very Likely (D/R/other) | Not competitive, with one candidate / party an extremely heavy favorite | X >= 90% |
Initial Kalshi Senate race ratings: (1/5/26)
* = flip
Very Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean R | Likely R | Very Likely R |
CO DE IL MA NJ NM OR RI VA | GA MN NC* NH | ME* MI | AK IA OH | MT NE TX | AL AR FL ID KS KY LA MS OK SC SD TN WV WY |
Initial Kalshi Governor race ratings: (1/5/26)
* = flip
Very Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean R | Likely R | Very Likely R |
CA CO CT HI IL MA MD PA | ME MN NM NY OR RI | MI WI | AZ GA IA NV OH | AK | KS* NH VT | AL AR FL ID NE OK SC SD TN TX WY |
Image source: Clay Banks