2028 vision:
California Governor Gavin Newsom continues to lead the 2028 Democratic field, although his dominance in the primary market has faded since last fall, declining from a 37% chance of clinching the nomination to 23% now. One Democrat who has been sparking some online speculation recently is Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff, whose speeches criticizing the Trump administration have garnered social media attention – and conspicuous praise from left-leaning accounts.
On the GOP side, Vice President JD Vance is still the favorite with a 37% chance of winning the nomination. Secretary of State Marco Rubio remains Vance’s strongest potential challenger for the Republican nomination, at a 25% chance.
In the general election, traders now give Democrats a 62% chance of winning the White House in 2028 and a 45% chance of winning a trifecta, both all-time highs and a potential reflection of President Trump’s low approval ratings in new CBS and NBC polls.
2026 Midterms big picture:
Democrats maintain their 85% chance to win back the House. Traders have Democrats ahead in 233 House seats while Republicans are favored in 193. Nine House seats are seen as tossups, meaning no party has over 60% chance of winning the district.
Overall Senate control remains a tossup, with Democrats inching ahead to a 52% chance of controlling the upper chamber. Democrats are currently favored in 51 Senate seats, including GOP-held North Carolina (86% chance of winning), Maine (73%), Ohio (61%), and Alaska (60%).
Weekly politics roundup:
The Strait of Hormuz opens, and then closes again. On Friday, Iran declared that the Strait of Hormuz was "completely open” during the duration of the ceasefire with Israel and Lebanon, leading the chance of traffic in the Strait returning to normal by May spiking to 49%. But after President Trump maintained that the U.S. Navy blockade of Iranian ports was still in effect, Iran announced that the strait was closed again on Saturday. The situation further escalated Sunday, when the U.S. Navy took an Iranian-flagged cargo ship into custody after it allegedly tried to breach the U.S. blockade. As of Sunday night, the prospects of Strait traffic returning to normal by May have dimmed, falling to just 24%.
California’s gubernatorial election remains in flux. Rep. Eric Swalwell’s exit from the closely-watched California governor race last week led Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer to surge to a 56% chance of succeeding Gavin Newsom as the leader of the Golden State. Steyer has been boosted by a whopping $115 million in advertising spend across the state, around 30 times more than the next highest candidate (fun fact: the current spending record for a statewide election in California remains Meg Whitman’s $178 million in 2010). But while Steyer still leads the field, another Democrat, Xavier Becerra, has risen to a strong second place. Becerra was California’s attorney general before being appointed HHS Secretary under President Biden, and is reportedly receiving a close look from some members of Newsom’s team.
The six leading candidates in the race (4 Democrats and 2 Republicans) will appear on stage together for the first time at a debate this Wednesday. With such a wide open field, a top-2 lockout of either party is still possible, and pressure to quickly consolidate behind one candidate on the Democratic side will likely grow. How voters – and markets – react to the candidates’ first debate could be critical to that consolidation.
Two House members out, two more to go? Last week, Swalwell and GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales both resigned from the U.S. House over sexual misconduct scandals. Now the heat is expected to turn up on Dem Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who allegedly misused $5 million in federal disaster relief funds, and GOP Rep. Cory Mills, who is under investigation for both alleged campaign finance violations and sexual misconduct. But the investigation into Cherfilus-McCormick is much farther along than the Mills probe, with traders believing that their removal may face differing timelines. Cherfilus-McCormick has an 85% chance of leaving Congress before July, while Mills only has a 41% chance of doing so.
Virginia votes in a redistricting referendum: Voters will decide this Tuesday, April 21, on a constitutional amendment that would allow the state legislature to redraw Virginia’s congressional maps before the midterms. The referendum, backed by Democrats, could help the party flip as many as four House seats and give them control of 10 out of 11 districts. Despite signs of high Republican enthusiasm and tight polls, traders believe that the referendum has an 86% chance of passing, albeit by a smaller margin than the Democrats’ 15-point blowout in the governor election last fall – the most likely outcome is that the referendum narrowly passes by less than 6 points.
It’s fundraising reporting season: Candidates in closely-watched Senate races released their Q1 fundraising results this past week. On the Democratic side, Texas Senate nominee James Talarico raised an eye-watering $27M, followed by Jon Ossoff’s $14M, Roy Cooper’s $13.8M, Sherrod Brown’s $10.1M, and Mary Peltola’s $8.6M. All of these candidates handily outraised their GOP opponents. On the Republican side, some of the strongest fundraisers included Maine Senator Susan Collins at $2.9M and Iowa Rep. Ashley Hinson’s $2.4M, which surpassed the combined total of her two leading Democratic challengers. Hinson’s cash advantage could help explain why Republicans are still favored in the Iowa Senate race, despite markets being more bullish on Democrats in other red-leaning states.
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