Who ya got?
Happy Friday, traders.
Anthropic, the creator of Claude, has just filed their IPO paperwork. With the SpaceX IPO expected to occur on June 12, and rumors of OpenAI also going public soon, it truly is the season for unprofitable AI companies launching at trillion-dollar valuations.
Now, although many of us are scared that these companies are going to take our jobs, it's important to think about all the positives. Working is lame, and I would much rather have a robot do everything for me.
You may think that I write this out of the goodness of my heart, but the truth is, AI just simply doesn’t have the quick wit and grammatical errors that make my writing so fun to read. Rest assured, once it does, I will let it take the reins.
Until then, you’re stuck with my shitty phrasing. With that said, let's break down the Anthropic IPO and see what our markets are showing us.
This is opinion. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below.
Anthropic’s IPO
On Monday, Anthropic, the developer of everyone's favorite work slave Claude, announced they had filed their IPO paperwork with the SEC. The question on everyone's mind is when we can expect them to announce a formal IPO date?
Based on our prediction markets, the majority of traders are expecting an announcement before November 1, with some even expecting an announcement before September.
The truth is, they’re in the early stages. Even though they have filed paperwork, they’ve done so confidentially. They haven’t disclosed the number of shares, the price, or how much they’ll be fundraising.
With the SpaceX IPO less than 2 weeks away, we wouldn’t be surprised if they’re paying close attention to how it turns out, and by filing now, they can act quickly if it goes well or adjust pricing or timing if it flops.
Anthropic vs. OpenAI: who will IPO first?
The next question that comes to mind is what’s happening with OpenAI? The companies are in a fierce competition to be the leader in the AI war. Last month, the Wall Street Journal suggested that a filing was imminent. But so far, it has not materialized.
Now that Anthropic has filed its paperwork, we wouldn’t be surprised if OpenAI is scrambling to do the same.
You’ll see from the above chart that our traders are predicting that OpenAI’s timeline to announce an IPO is a couple of months behind Anthropic's. That’s of no surprise.
However, even though Anthropic was first to file, that doesn’t necessarily mean OpenAI won’t be the first to IPO. There’s a lot that goes into an IPO behind the scenes, and OpenAI has been working on this process for years. At the end of 2025, they completed a restructuring to transition from a non-profit to a for-profit company. This was clearly done to pave the way for them to finally go public.
From IPOs to AGI
It's easy to get lost in the excitement of the IPO announcements, but we should be asking ourselves who actually has the best product. In the long run, share price is almost always going to reflect how much money you really make. And the best indicator of who is going to be on top is who has the best product.
At the beginning of the year, our prediction markets were pegging Gemini to be top dog at the end of 2026. But Claude's meteoric rise and impressive features have completely flipped the script.
In just 3 months, Claude went from being at the bottom of our predictions to surpassing Gemini. And as of writing this, ⅔ of traders are predicting that Claude will be the best product on the market by the end of the year. Depressingly for Sam Altman, ChatGPT has more or less flatlined in public sentiment.
This sentiment is likely due to so much of ChatGPT’s revenue coming from consumer subscriptions. The market is incredibly excited about enterprise AI applications, which is exactly what Anthropic has focused on. Over 80% of Anthropic’s revenue comes from businesses.
This isn’t to say that the race is won. We have nearly 7 months left to see who dominates the market with the top product. The AI race is constantly changing and adapting. New product launches and advancements in models can flip the script overnight. Pay close attention and keep trading. We’ll see you next week.
Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
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The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
