Kimmel cancellation odds soar

Prediction markets are flashing red for Jimmy Kimmel Live! after ABC suspended the late-night program indefinitely following the host’s controversial remarks about Charlie Kirk’s assassin and mounting political pressure.

On Kalshi’s TV cancellation market, contracts tied to Jimmy Kimmel Live! jumped to 49%, up 39 points in a single session and nearly double where they stood earlier this week. It’s the highest level traders have priced all year, signaling that ABC’s move may be more than a temporary pause. By comparison, The View sits at 28% and South Park at 7%, both largely unchanged.

The price action reflects a sudden shift in sentiment. As recently as Monday, Kimmel’s cancellation risk was seen as remote. But with affiliates like Nexstar refusing to carry the show and the Federal Communications Commission threatening scrutiny, traders now see a real chance ABC cuts ties before year’s end.

A parallel Kalshi market on when a new episode will be released shows traders are hedging.

The odds suggest traders expect a comeback by the end of the year, but confidence in an immediate return is fading. That said, this market is fairly new, so prices are likely still in flux.

The Hollywood Reporter reports that ABC’s suspension came after a revolt from affiliates, including Nexstar, and pressure from FCC Chair Brendan Carr. Nexstar President Andrew Alford said Kimmel’s comments were “offensive and insensitive” and that airing the show was “not in the public interest at the current time.”

Fox News also reports that Carr called Kimmel’s remarks “some of the sickest conduct” and warned broadcasters about potential license risks, suggesting fines or license reviews could follow.

Axios added that President Trump and the White House celebrated the suspension. On Truth Social, Trump called Kimmel “a sick freak” and congratulated ABC for “finally having the courage to do what had to be done.” He also urged NBC to cancel Jimmy Fallon and Seth Meyers next. The White House Rapid Response account echoed the sentiment, writing, “They’re doing their viewers a favor.”

For ABC, the suspension represents a clash between corporate strategy and political headwinds. For traders, the markets are signaling unprecedented uncertainty around one of late night’s longest-running shows.

With cancellation odds near 50% and return-timing contracts splitting between fall and year-end, Kalshi traders are effectively saying Kimmel’s future hangs in the balance, caught between regulatory threats, affiliate power, and presidential pressure.

Kalshi markets now forecast:

Traders think that while a late-2025 return is possible, the risk of outright cancellation is higher than ever.

Sources: Hollywood Reporter, Sept. 17, 2025; Fox News, Sept. 17, 2025; Axios, Sept. 18, 2025; Kalshi, Sept. 17, 2025; Kalshi, Sept. 17, 2025.

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