Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass has taken back the lead over City Councilmember Nithya Raman in Kalshi's mayoral election market, the third reversal in the last ten days.
The Los Angeles Mayor winner market shows Bass leading with 55%, followed by Raman at 45% as of Wednesday evening.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
What do the polls say?
The Los Angeles Times reported on Oct. 29, 2026, that a Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll found Bass and Raman tied at 40% among likely voters, with 19% undecided.
The poll, published on Oct. 28, 2026, surveyed 2,197 likely city voters online in English and Spanish from Oct. 19 to Oct. 25. Its margin of error is roughly three percentage points.
“The neck-and-neck contest is a big change from September, when Raman jumped out to an 11-percentage-point [lead] with support from 39% of likely voters compared with Bass at 28%,” the L.A. Times reported. “It follows weeks of relentless attacks on Raman by Bass, whom some analysts had predicted would need to campaign more aggressively to close the gap with her challenger.”
Opponent turns friendly
The new poll comes as former Los Angeles mayoral candidate Rick Caruso, who lost to Bass in 2022, told ABC7 that he plans to vote for the incumbent in the Nov. 3 election, representing a high-profile endorsement from Bass’ previous opponent.
“I think like most Angelenos, I’ve struggled with the choices that we have, but I’ve given it a lot of thought, especially a lot of thought over the weekend,” Caruso said to ABC7 in an interview. “I’ve looked at the records and I’ve made a clear decision of who I’m going to vote for… And that’s going to be Mayor Bass.”
Caruso believes Bass has learned from her mistakes and is better prepared to lead the city, according to ABC7’s Oct. 28, 2026, report.
“This election, I believe, should not be a referendum of the past,” Caruso said. “It should be looking for the future of Los Angeles. And I think she’s the most prepared to take us into the future of L.A.”
Rift among DSA members
As the mayoral race tightens, Raman is also facing disagreements within the Democratic Socialists of America over her positions on Israel.
“The same socialist movement celebrating its ascendancy through New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani is now debating whether to disown Nithya Raman before Los Angeles voters can even weigh in,” Axios reported on Oct. 27, 2026.
Some DSA members have called for the organization to withdraw its endorsement of Raman over her position on the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement targeting Israel, per Axios.
Despite the rift among DSA members, Raman still has a lot of support in her camp: The New York Times reported that the movement that helped Mamdani become mayor of New York appears to be boosting Raman’s chances of becoming the next mayor of Los Angeles.
“For Ms. Raman, the comparisons with the New York mayor were inevitable,” NYT said. “Aside from their DSA membership, both are millennials born abroad to South Asian parents, and their campaigns shrewdly deployed social media.”
California governor’s race
Democratic candidate Xavier Becerra holds a sizable lead over Republican Steve Hilton.
The Kalshi market for the California governor’s race shows Becerra at 97.1%, followed by Hilton at 3.4%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: Mario Tama
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
