Maine Senate odds: Democratic dip to 60% amid Platner scandal

The Democratic Party's chances of winning the Maine Senate race have dropped 10 points since May 24, falling from 70% to 60% amid a sexting scandal surrounding Democratic frontrunner Graham Platner.

The shift comes as Platner's campaign contends with a string of controversies that have rattled Democratic confidence in the race.

Over the weekend, a Wall Street Journal report claimed that Platner exchanged sexually explicit text messages with several women. Platner's wife, Amy Gertner, pushed back on the coverage, calling it "really shameful," but a subsequent report claims in the spring of 2025, she "informed the campaign about a potential political problem" involving similar text messages he sent to women.

The report said campaign aides viewed the messages as a private matter and decided they did not warrant disrupting the campaign. Gertner said in a statement released through the campaign that she and her husband attended counseling where they confronted the issue and that, "Our marriage is stronger than ever before."

Platner has also faced scrutiny over past comments about women. He also came under fire for a military tattoo that resembles a Nazi symbol, which he later had covered after concerns were raised publicly. Platner said he obtained the tattoo while deployed with the Marines and was unaware of its connections to the Nazi party. He also said he passed a background check when he later joined the Army National Guard despite having the tattoo.

The New York Times reported that Democrats are growing concerned about the candidate's scandals. Sen. Cory Booker said on ABC's This Week, "Yes, I have concerns. The guy has questions to answer. And that's what campaigns are for."

Sen. Chris Murphy said on CBS's Face the Nation that despite the scandals, he sees a clear contrast between the Maine candidates and the parties when it comes to governing and public policy, citing Platner's military experience.

"He has certainly admitted that he has made mistakes. But I think this is going to be a pretty clear contrast in Maine between somebody who has spent his life protecting us versus somebody who seems to be protecting Donald Trump's corruption."

The Maine Senate race is considered a key race for the Democratic Party's attempt to take back control of the Senate in the 2026 midterms. The movement in Maine has also coincided with a shift in the Senate control market. As of Monday, the Republican Party has a 56% chance of holding the chamber while the Democrats’ chances are priced at 44%.

Even with the scandals plaguing Platner's campaign and the party's chances of taking back control of the key Senate seat, Platner still leads among his primary candidates and against incumbent Susan Collins.

The University of New Hampshire and the American Association for Public Opinion Research's most recent poll on the Maine Senate race shows Platner leading in the primary race at 76%. The same polling found Platner leading over Collins at 49% to 38%.

Kalshi markets now predict:

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