Rep. Thomas Massie may not have picked up the support of President Donald Trump, but Kalshi traders still like his chances in Kentucky’s 4th district primary.
In the aftermath of President Trump’s Kentucky rally in support of Massie’s primary challenger, farmer and former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, Massie’s price rose by 12 points to 65%. Meanwhile, Gallrein’s chances dropped to 35% in the same timeframe.
Trump’s Kentucky rally
Despite being a Republican, Rep. Thomas Massie has been a vocal opponent of President Trump on several topics, including the war in Iran and the release of the Epstein files.
Trump responded to Massie’s criticism by holding a rally in Kentucky where he endorsed Gallrein. The super PAC MAGA KY has also spent $2.6 million to support Gallrein in Kentucky’s 4th district primary race.
However, based on Thursday afternoon’s prices, it seems many traders think the endorsement and spending had the opposite effect. That said, Gallrein’s chances of winning are still slightly better than one in three and should not be ignored. We’ll find out when voters go to the polls on May 19.
House control
In national news, the market for which party will win the U.S. House continues to look promising for the Democrats. They currently have an implied probability of 85%, compared with Republicans at 15%.
Democrats would need only a small net gain to take back control.
Bloomberg Government reports that the GOP controls the U.S. House with 218 seats, while Democrats have 213. There are also four vacant seats due to the deaths of two representatives in California and Texas, and two resignations from New Jersey and Georgia. Both a Republican and a Democrat have also vacated their seats.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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