While Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed continues to hold a substantial lead in Kalshi's market for the Michigan Senate race, an unexpected endorsement from Democratic Congresswoman Haley Stevens has created considerable controversy in the final days before the November 3rd midterms.
Following Stevens' endorsement of Republican Mike Rogers on Sunday, El-Sayed's chances of victory on Kalshi fell to 68%, down from approximately 76% earlier that day. Those odds have since rebounded to 78%, surpassing the previous highs reached in late October.
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Stevens Endorsement Sparks Democratic Infighting
With Election Day approaching, Michigan Democrats are facing an unexpected controversy after Congresswoman Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers, despite previously supporting Abdul El-Sayed following their closely contested August primary.
According to CNN's November 1st reporting, tensions between Stevens and El-Sayed had been growing over disagreements involving Israel and a controversial advertisement from an outside political group. The dispute intensified after El-Sayed's campaign asked Stevens to withdraw from scheduled campaign appearances.
Stevens ultimately appeared alongside Rogers at a Detroit church service on Sunday before announcing her endorsement. The decision drew immediate criticism from Democratic leaders, including Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi, while several members of Stevens' congressional staff resigned. El-Sayed's campaign reported raising approximately $1.2 million in the hours following the endorsement.
Polling Shows El-Sayed Maintaining Lead
Despite the controversy surrounding Stevens' endorsement, traditional polling continues to show El-Sayed ahead of Rogers as Michigan voters prepare to head to the polls.
A CNN poll conducted October 20th through 27th found El-Sayed receiving 49% support compared with Rogers' 42%, a seven-point advantage. Another survey conducted October 26th through 27th by Mitchell Research showed El-Sayed leading 51% to 44%, while an InsiderAdvantage poll found a considerably closer race with El-Sayed ahead 47% to 46%.
Recent polling continues to show El-Sayed maintaining a lead over Rogers, while Kalshi's Michigan Senate margin-of-victory market reflects a competitive contest. Traders currently give El-Sayed a 53% chance of winning by at least four percentage points, as Michigan's closely watched Senate race enters its final hours before Election Day.
The most recent survey, a New York Times/Siena poll conducted through November 1st, found El-Sayed ahead by 11 points (53–42%), the widest margin in recent polling. The poll noted El-Sayed was running roughly even with men, a group that historically tilts Republican. However, it also flagged that polls overestimated his strength in the Democratic primary, a caveat worth keeping in mind as Election Day approaches.
Kalshi Odds Rebound as Election Nears
Following Stevens' unexpected endorsement, Kalshi traders initially lowered El-Sayed's chances of winning by approximately eight percentage points, with Rogers' odds climbing to 32% on Sunday.
However, the market has since reversed direction, with El-Sayed's odds climbing to 78% and Rogers' falling to 22%. The rebound comes as Democratic leaders publicly reaffirm their support for El-Sayed despite the ongoing controversy.
The movement is also evident in Kalshi's Michigan Senate margin-of-victory market, where traders currently give El-Sayed approximately a 53% chance of winning by at least four percentage points.
With Michigan's open Senate seat playing an important role in the battle for congressional control, the final turnout and impact of Stevens' endorsement remain important factors as voters prepare for Election Day.
Takeaway:
While Haley Stevens' endorsement of Mike Rogers initially coincided with a significant decline in Abdul El-Sayed's odds, the Democratic candidate has since recovered those losses and reached a new high on Kalshi.
Recent polling continues to show El-Sayed ahead, while the controversy surrounding Stevens has added another layer of uncertainty to one of the most closely watched Senate races of the midterms.
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