Florida governor election odds: Byron Donalds' chances fall to 61% as Election Day approaches

Florida's 2026 gubernatorial election is entering its final stretch, with Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly competing to succeed term-limited Governor Ron DeSantis. With Election Day scheduled for November 3, Donalds' chances have dropped to an all-time low of 61%, compared with 39% for Jolly.

The latest odds reflect a significant change from October 17, 2025, when Kalshi traders gave Republicans a 92% chance of winning Florida's governorship. The current 61% figure represents a 31-percentage-point decline in the Republican market price.

The race has attracted national attention, with both parties investing in the contest and prominent political figures backing their respective candidates. The outcome will determine who leads Florida's executive branch beginning in January 2027.

Kalshi's Florida governor market tracks which party will win the November 2026 election. As of November 2, the market displays the following odds:

Donalds is a Republican U.S. representative who won his party's gubernatorial nomination in the August 18 primary. Jolly, a former Republican congressman who later became a Democrat, secured the Democratic nomination.

The winner will replace DeSantis, who cannot seek another consecutive term because of Florida's gubernatorial term limits.

Kalshi’s market page also provides polling information for the Florida governor race. The polling averages currently displayed on the market are:

The displayed polling average gives Donalds a five-point advantage over Jolly. However, polling averages are not the same as prediction-market odds: the 48.1% and 43.4% figures represent reported voter support, while the 61% and 39% figures represent market prices.

In addition to the winner market, Kalshi offers a separate market focused on the margin of victory.

As of November 2, the displayed margin forecast is approximately Republicans +2.3 percentage points. The market also lists a 47% chance for Donalds to win by at least three percentage points.

This market measures a different outcome from the overall winner market. A candidate can win the election without reaching a particular margin, so the two markets should be viewed separately.

The margin market provides another way to follow how traders are pricing the Florida governor contest as Election Day approaches.

The 2026 election will determine who succeeds Ron DeSantis and sets Florida's executive priorities for the next four years.

Donalds has campaigned on continuing policies associated with the DeSantis administration, including conservative approaches to immigration enforcement and state government. He has also discussed leaving decisions about data-center development to local governments while ensuring utility costs and water resources are protected.

Jolly has presented himself as a different direction for the state, emphasizing issues including property insurance and affordability. One major policy disagreement involves his proposal for a state-backed catastrophe fund to take on a larger role in hurricane and windstorm coverage. Donalds has criticized that proposal and supports changes to the existing Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund instead.

The race has also drawn national political involvement. President Donald Trump and DeSantis have supported Donalds, while former President Barack Obama has endorsed Jolly.

Kalshi's market also displays Florida's recent presidential election results as context for the state's political environment.

These results show that Florida voted Republican in both recent presidential elections, with a considerably larger Republican margin in 2024.

However, presidential voting patterns do not automatically determine the outcome of a gubernatorial election. The candidates, issues, turnout and political environment can differ substantially between election cycles.

As of November 2, Kalshi's Florida governor market lists Byron Donalds at 61% and David Jolly at 39%.

That represents a substantial change from October 17, 2025, when traders gave Republicans a 92% chance of winning the governor's race. The Republican market price has declined by 31 percentage points since that earlier snapshot.

The latest market information also shows Donalds leading the displayed polling average by five points, with a separate margin-of-victory forecast of approximately Republican +2.3.

With Election Day on November 3, the Florida governor race remains a major contest to watch. The final result will determine whether Republicans retain the governor's office or Democrats win it for the first time since 1994.

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