With Election Day one day away, Democrat James Talarico holds a substantial lead on Kalshi in the Texas Senate race, and polling signals largely back him up, though with varying margins.
The latest NYT/Siena survey gives Talarico a seven-point edge over Republican Ken Paxton (50–43%), while the RealClearPolitics average shows a narrower 1.8-point gap.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
Polls diverge on the margin, but Talarico leads in all of them
The RealClearPolitics polling average currently shows Talarico receiving 48.8% support compared with Paxton's 47%, a narrow 1.8-point advantage. A separate Texas Southern University poll found a similar result, with Talarico leading 49% to 47%.
The outlier is the final NYT/Siena poll, which found a seven-point Talarico lead, driven in part by Paxton's deeply negative favorability rating, the worst of any candidate in the survey. Taken together, the polls consistently show Talarico ahead, with the size of his advantage the main point of uncertainty.
Latino voters, early voters could prove critical
Another important development involves shifting support among Hispanic voters, a demographic that played a critical role in President Trump's 2024 victory in Texas.
According to NewsNation's November 1st reporting, Decision Desk HQ's polling average shows Talarico receiving 54.8% support among Hispanic voters compared with Paxton's 32.1%. The shift represents a substantial reversal from 2024, when Trump won the state's Hispanic vote by approximately 10 points.
However, the trend is not consistent statewide. A University of Houston poll found Talarico leading among Latino voters overall, while Paxton maintains a significant advantage among rural Hispanics, receiving 56% support compared with Talarico's 24%.
Early voting has also drawn considerable attention, with nearly 7.5 million Texans reportedly casting ballots ahead of Election Day. While modeled party turnout indicates a relatively narrow division between Republicans and Democrats, Texas does not register voters by party, making the final composition of the electorate an important uncertainty.
Record spending and final campaign push
With control of the US Senate at stake, both campaigns have spent heavily in the closing weeks of the election. According to AdImpact Politics figures cited by CBS Texas, total political advertising spending in the race, including the primaries, has reached approximately $544.5 million, making it the most expensive non-presidential race on record.
Republicans have spent approximately $274 million on general election advertising supporting Paxton, compared with $133 million spent by Democrats supporting Talarico. President Trump and Vice President JD Vance have also made repeated campaign appearances in Texas as Republicans work to consolidate support.
Talarico has focused much of his closing campaign message on affordability and criticism of Paxton's political record, while Paxton has emphasized conservative values and portrayed his Democratic opponent as too progressive for Texas.
Takeaway:
While James Talarico continues to hold a substantial lead on Kalshi, Ken Paxton remains competitive in traditional polling, with recent surveys indicating a closely contested race.
Record campaign spending, shifting Hispanic voter preferences, and elevated early turnout have added uncertainty in the final days before the November 3rd election. The outcome also carries national significance as both parties compete for control of the US Senate.
Follow Dominic Michael Tripi on X: @dmichaeltripi
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: Chip Somodevilla
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an ‘AS IS’ basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
