Democrat Abdul El-Sayed retains his lead over Republican Mike Rogers in Kalshi's Michigan Senate race market. El-Sayed has a 71% chance of winning compared with 29% for Rogers as of Thursday morning.
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What do the polls say?
Recent polling shows El-Sayed ahead of Rogers. USA Today reported yesterday that the latest Detroit News/WDIV-TV survey of 600 likely voters found El-Sayed at 51.4% and Rogers at 45.1% with 3.6% undecided. The poll’s margin of error is four percentage points.
“El-Sayed has a slight lead over Rogers in most public polls, but he is running behind the top of the Democratic ticket,” Politico reported. “His supporters warn that skepticism persists among swathes of moderate, Black and Jewish voters who largely broke for his primary rival – and worry it’s being exacerbated by a barrage of Republican attacks on El-Sayed’s religion and ethnicity.”
El-Sayed’s message
El-Sayed is still campaigning on progressive policies, supporting Medicare for All and higher taxes on wealthy Americans, but has adopted a more measured tone ahead of Election Day.
El-Sayed has cut back on the “bravado” that shaped his campaign, Politico continued. The shift appears aimed at broadening his appeal among independent and undecided voters.
Meanwhile, El-Sayed campaigned on Saturday in Detroit alongside former President Barack Obama and Sen. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan.
Attacks on faith
El-Sayed’s Muslim faith is seen as a test for political races. If elected, he would become the first Muslim senator. However, he’s faced “Islamophobic rhetoric from agitators at campaign events and from high-profile supporters of his Republican opponent, Mike Rogers, including President [Donald] Trump,” according to The New York Times.
Trump stepped up his attacks on El-Sayed’s faith during his campaign rally for Rogers in Port Huron this weekend, calling the Democratic candidate a “jihadist Muslim Brotherhood member,” The Huffington Post reported on Wednesday.
“If Abdul and the Democrats win, they will open the floodgates and invite hordes of jihadis to our shores, creating a nightmare of violence and terror until you cannot even have a Christmas,” Trump said.
Trump added that El-Sayed was “on the side of the terrorists” and would “have to go through a metal detector before he’s allowed to go into the Senate,” The Associated Press reported on Sunday.
Bishara Bahbah, a founder of Arab Americans for Trump, condemned the president's remarks as racist and unacceptable. El-Sayed separately rejected allegations questioning his loyalty to the United States and denied having ties to extremist groups.
“They are crossing a red line. They are racist,” Bahbah said.
El-Sayed has also been accused of “stoking antisemitism with his relentless criticism of Israel. Some who have spent a lifetime voting for Democrats are considering casting a ballot for Mr. Rogers – or not voting at all,” per The New York Times.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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