Kalshi traders overwhelmingly favor Abdul El-Sayed to win Michigan's Democratic Senate primary to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters.
Kalshi's Democratic nominee market gives El-Sayed a 96.6% chance of winning the primary, followed by Rep. Haley Stevens at 3.5% and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow at 0.1%. McMorrow suspended her campaign on July 5, 2026, but her name remains on the ballot.
Michigan Senate primary
The Kalshi market is not the only place where El-Sayed has a healthy lead over his opponents.
Writing for The Hill, Caroline Vakil pointed to a fresh Emerson College Polling/WLNS/WOODTV survey released Thursday, July 30, 2026, that put El-Sayed 15 points ahead of Stevens with days to go before the Aug. 4, 2026 primary. The former Wayne County health director drew 54 percent to Stevens's 39 percent, while 6 percent of respondents were undecided and roughly 2 percent stuck with McMorrow.
RealClearPolitics also shows five out of six polls conducted on the primary race have El-Sayed in the lead. He holds an average lead of 10.2 points over Stevens.
Both have received some high profile endorsements leading up to the Aug. 4, 2026 primary vote. The Associated Press reported that Peters cast his ballot for Stevens, saying, "This is really ground zero for hopefully taking the majority in the U.S. Senate…We have to win in Michigan. We have to keep it blue, and it was my assessment that Haley Stevens is the best candidate." Peters also said he would support the Democratic candidate in the race, no matter who wins the primary.
Politico reported that El-Sayed received endorsements from Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Sen. Bernie Sanders. Ocasio-Cortez and Sanders joined El-Sayed at a rally at the Detroit Opera House on Saturday, July 18, 2026.
The Democratic Party and other political leaders are keeping a close eye on the Michigan Senate primary race. El-Sayed is the more progressive candidate and Axios’ Mike Zapler reported that “A win by Abdul El-Sayed in the swing state would turbocharge the party’s left flank and validate establishment fears about the party’s direction.”
"Establishment Democrats have watched in horror as democratic socialist candidates pull off one win after another in House primaries this year," Zapler wrote. "The Michigan primary brings the ideological clash to its biggest stage yet."
Michigan's Republican primary
Kalshi traders have a clear favorite in Michigan's Republican primary as well, ahead of the Aug. 4, 2026 vote.
Former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers holds a firm lead over his opponents on the Michigan Republican primary market. Rogers holds a price of 99.3%, followed by Kent Benham at 1.2%, and Bernadette Smith at 1%.
Kalshi traders are also forecasting that no matter which candidate wins the race, the Democratic Party will retain control of Michigan’s Senate seat.
Kalshi's general election market currently gives Democrats the edge, pricing the party at 68% to hold Michigan's Senate seat, compared with 32% for Republicans.
The takeaway:
Kalshi traders now predict:
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