Disney's live-action remake of Moana hasn't reached theaters yet, but Kalshi traders are already divided over whether critics will consider it Fresh.
The market currently forecasts a Rotten Tomatoes score of 62%, with a 53% chance the movie stays above the 60% threshold required for a Fresh rating. That’s only slightly better than a coin flip.
What’s it about?
Moana is the latest Disney film to get the live-action remake treatment. Past live-action Disney remakes include The Little Mermaid, Aladdin, Snow White, and The Lion King.
The film’s plot mirrors its original 2016 animated version. Moana, played by Catherine Laga’aia, sets out to sea to save her home island of Motunui from a plague of ruined crops and a depleted fish supply by retrieving the stolen heart of Te Fiti. Along the way, she meets with the demigod Maui, played again by Dwayne Johnson, who joins her quest to restore prosperity to her homeland.
How will the movie do?
The review embargo for the new Disney film ends on Wednesday, July 8, but some commentators are questioning whether the remake can match the success of Disney's strongest live-action adaptations.
Previous live-action remakes from Disney Studios have received mixed reviews and returns at best. Deadline Hollywood reported that 2025’s remake of Snow White starring Rachel Zegler and Gal Gadot lost $115 million after its theatrical and home releases. That uneven track record has kept traders cautious, even as the market's forecast, now at 62%, still leaves a real chance the score slips back below the Fresh threshold.
There are similar concerns being raised about the Moana remake especially since it’s being remade so soon after the release of the original hit film. Comingsoon.net’s Dan Girolamo noted it’s only been a decade since the original film was released and less than two years since Moana 2 hit theaters. Johnson also recently confirmed that a third film is in the works.
Girolamo compared the new live-action Moana to 2025’s remake of Lilo and Stitch, which was a big hit for Disney becoming the first film of 2025 to pass the $1 billion mark. The live-action Lilo and Stitch changed the main villain of the movie from Capt. Gantu to Jumba, added a few new characters to the mix, and included an expanded ending that did more than just mirror the original movie.
“Disney has hopefully followed the Lilo and Stitch blueprint for Moana,” Girolamo wrote. He expects the live-action version to keep the original’s signature songs and core storyline intact, while adding new elements to set it apart from the animated film.
Fashion Times’ Kayelee Rosales has a bleaker prediction for the Moana live-action remake, pointing to online skepticism about whether audiences still want familiar franchises reimagined. One viral fan reaction summed up the mood: “I didn’t even know this was coming out.”
The film seems to have everything going for it with a hit franchise for a foundation and one of the biggest movie stars in the world headlining the film. Some analysts have argued that audiences have become more selective about franchise remakes, particularly when the new version closely follows the original.
Rosales notes that as Disney prepares to bring Moana back to theaters in live-action form, reaction to the film has turned more critical than expected.
With reviews still under embargo, Kalshi's market puts Moana's forecasted Rotten Tomatoes score at 62%, but only a 53% chance it holds above Rotten Tomatoes' 60% Fresh threshold. Whether critics embrace Disney's latest remake should become clearer once the first reviews arrive Wednesday, July 8.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: Disney
This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
