2026 NFL division odds: Current favorites to win every division

The 2026 NFL season brings another set of division races across the AFC and NFC, with 32 teams competing for eight division titles. 

Some teams enter the season as clear divisional favorites, while other divisions feature much tighter races between multiple contenders.

Once the season begins, odds can change quickly. Results, injuries, tiebreaker scenarios, and more can impact a team's chances of winning its division as the NFL regular season unfolds.

NFL division markets on Kalshi provide a snapshot of the expectations ahead of the upcoming regular season, with divisional odds providing a real-time reflection of the market's opinions. For a broader look at how teams are projected to perform, see Kalshi's NFL standings predictions.

^{For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL.} 

NFL division odds measure a team’s chances of finishing first in its four-team division. Distinct from odds to make the playoffs, win the conference, or win the Super Bowl, Kalshi offers markets for all eight NFL divisions. 

When viewing divisional odds on Kalshi, the four teams in each division are priced by prediction market traders, with percentages reflecting the approximate probability of each event occurring.

For example, the Buffalo Bills are priced at 57% to win the AFC East in 2026. Meanwhile, the New England Patriots, a divisional rival, are priced at 40% to win the division. These odds indicate that traders believe the Bills have around a 57% probability to win the division, while the Patriots have a 40% chance of doing so. 

Other prediction markets may offer divisional odds in different formats, like American odds. These odds take the implied probability and display a (+) or a (-) sign to indicate implied probabilities.

Negative odds indicate a favorite, while positive odds showcase an underdog. 

Prior to the 2026 season, Kalshi traders have priced the AFC divisional races as follows. 

The Buffalo Bills are favored to win the AFC East (57%) and reclaim the division after the New England Patriots snapped Buffalo's five-year run as division champion in 2025.

But Kalshi traders make this largely a two-team race, with the Patriots priced at 40%. Meanwhile, the division’s bottom two teams, the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, are seen as extreme longshots, priced at 4% and 3%, respectively. 

Buffalo may have success beyond the division as well. The Bills are currently priced as the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, and maintain the second-best odds to win the NFL championship in 2027. 

After a disappointing 2025, a resurgent Baltimore Ravens squad is expected to win the AFC North, according to Kalshi traders. Baltimore is currently priced at 46% to earn the divisional crown, and holds odds of 13% to snag the AFC conference as a whole and 7% to win the Super Bowl.

But this division isn’t just a two-team race. The Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers are also relevant, priced at 34% and 20%, respectively, before the season’s first snap. 

The Houston Texans are priced as the favorites (46%) to win the AFC South, but the Jacksonville Jaguars are next in line, priced at 29% to defend their divisional crown. 

Jacksonville went 13-4 last season to win the division, but Houston closed the year winning nine straight games, ultimately advancing to the divisional round of the playoffs where they fell to the AFC champion New England Patriots. 

The pair will duke it out for the top spot, while the Indianapolis Colts (17%) and Tennessee Titans (8%) enter the season with much less optimism. 

The AFC West could produce one of the NFL's closest divisional races, with three teams priced within 1% of each other to take the divisional crown. 

The Kansas City Chiefs (34%), Denver Broncos (33%), and Los Angeles Chargers (33%) maintain nearly identical odds heading into the season, signaling that traders expect a tightly contested race throughout the NFL regular season. 

Unlike other divisions, which may have more separation between top and bottom teams, traders focused on the AFC West may need to refresh their understanding of NFL tiebreaker rules in the case that two or more teams finish the year with the same record in-division. 

The last team out is the Las Vegas Raiders who hold just 4% odds of claiming the divisional crown. 

Prior to the 2026 season, Kalshi traders have priced the NFC divisional races as follows. 

The Philadelphia Eagles enter the 2026 season as the favorite to win another NFC East title, according to Kalshi traders. 

Traders currently price the Eagles at 41% to repeat as divisional champions, though that marker has fallen from more than 50% when the market opened in February. 

Stealing some market share from the Eagles is the Dallas Cowboys, who traders price at 37% to snag the divisional crown. Dallas most recently won the division in 2023, but has failed to earn a winning record in each of the last two seasons. The pair maintain the two highest odds of representing the NFC in the Super Bowl as well, priced at 10% and 9%, respectively, to win the NFC championship.

The last two teams in the division, the New York Giants and Washington Commanders, are both priced at 15%. 

The NFC North is likely to have a tightly contested race during the 2026 season. 

Kalshi traders make the Detroit Lions the favorite at 35%, but all three other teams are still in the picture. The Green Bay Packers and defending divisional champion Chicago Bears are right within striking distance at 29% and 25% respectively, while the Minnesota Vikings maintain the worst odds at 19%. 

Nevertheless, that 19% marker is the highest probability assigned to a division’s “worst” team, showcasing the abnormal depth of the NFC North division. 

The NFC South divisional race rivals that of the NFC North, where all four teams are within striking distance of a divisional crown according to preseason prices. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the current favorite, priced at 32% as the preseason begins to unfold. However, the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers are just behind, at 29% and 23%, respectively. 

Last year, the Panthers, Buccaneers, and Falcons all finished the year with the same record, handing the divisional crown to the Panthers thanks to a divisional tiebreaker. Without much separation in preseason odds to take the division, the race could produce some of the same drama in 2026. 

The preseason Super Bowl favorite Los Angeles Rams are the clear favorite to win the NFC West division as well. 

The team emerged alongside their division rival Seattle Seahawks as legitimate contenders last season, with Seattle going all the way to win the Super Bowl title last season. Roles could reverse this year, with the Rams priced at 49% to win the division while Seattle sits at just 29% before the season kicks off. 

The San Francisco 49ers are priced at 20% to take the division, providing a compelling third option to watch throughout the year. However, the division’s final team, the Arizona Cardinals, are projected to be one of the worst teams in the league. Given the strength of the division, Kalshi traders place the Cardinals at just 1% to surprise as NFC West champions. 

Divisional winner contracts on Kalshi settle at $0 or $1, as only one team can win each NFL divisional race and earn a playoff bid. The real-time odds reflect the market's read on that particular team's likelihood of winning the division. For example, a team trading at 60% implies a probability that it will earn the divisional title 60% of the time. 

This creates a straightforward way to follow the divisional race as the season unfolds. 

Suppose a preseason favorite opens the year with consecutive losses or a significant injury to its star player. In real time, Kalshi traders will assess and price the competing divisional teams to reflect new probabilities in the divisional race.

Division odds are constantly moving and do not sit still like fixed preseason predictions. Kalshi’s division winner contracts price races directly and allow the market to adjust its expectations throughout the season as new information is presented.

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