Markets forecast a Maye–Stafford showdown for Most Valuable Player

This season has been one of the most unpredictable in recent football memory, with countless surprises, both positive and negative.

But with only one week of the 2025–26 regular season remaining, Kalshi traders aren’t expecting many surprises in the Most Valuable Player race, which they now price as a two-man contest.

^{This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.}

New England quarterback Drake Maye is the current MVP frontrunner, with a 75% chance of taking home the award. Los Angeles QB Matthew Stafford — who was listed as the favorite for a majority of the season — is now priced at just 25¢. No other player is trading above one cent.

At the moment, Maye’s probability is peaking. His most recent game featured five passing touchdowns in a lopsided victory over rival New York. This offensive showing helped Maye earn his current positioning in the MVP market, which had previously reached as high as 50% on December 2.

Maye’s late surge can be attributed to his own prowess, but undoubtedly, Stafford’s performance on Monday night in Atlanta was the largest factor in the MVP movement. The razor-sharp Stafford committed three costly interceptions as his side ultimately fell short, 27-24.

Stafford has been one of the most dominant players in 2025, and this will likely be the top statistical campaign of his 17-year career. His league-leading 42 touchdown passes this season are already a personal best. Still, Stafford has been picked off six times over his past five games, and in a crowded conference, Los Angeles needs every win it can get.

Unlike Stafford and LA, Maye and New England managed to win the division. Los Angeles will enter the playoffs as a wild-card team after losing three of its past five contests. That seems to shape the public narrative. But despite the recent momentum shift, Stafford has superior numbers to Maye almost across the board.

Entering Week 18, Stafford (70.1 QBR) has amassed 42 passing touchdowns, 4,448 yards and eight interceptions. Conversely, Maye (76.5 QBR) has thrown for 30 scores (34 all-purpose TD), 4,203 yards and eight interceptions.

Maye will welcome Miami to Foxborough this Sunday. And with an outside shot at the conference’s number-one seed, we should see his best effort. Across the way, Stafford and Los Angeles are hosting Arizona in Inglewood.

Despite Maye’s recent MVP market ascension, and his team winning its division, it is intriguing to see LA above New England in Kalshi’s pro football champion prediction market. Ahead of the final regular season week, Los Angeles is among the frontrunners, showing a 14% winning probability. Meanwhile, New England is trading at just nine cents, which falls outside the top five.

Kalshi’s traders still list several other marquee players in the MVP market, such as last year’s winner Josh Allen and two-time MVP Lamar Jackson. But as mentioned, none are priced above one cent.

Allen peaked at 49¢ to win back-to-back MVPs on September 30. That came on the heels of a three-touchdown day versus New Orleans. More recently, Allen plummeted after a flat outing in Cleveland just two weeks ago.

Jackson reached 27¢ back on September 22, but his brief absence due to injury left significant dents in that stock. Jackson is one of only three active players to have won here multiple times (along with Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers).

For a plot twist no one anticipated, Indianapolis quarterback Daniel Jones presented a formidable MVP case this season, rising to a 9% likelihood while orchestrating the league’s top offense. Unfortunately, lower-body injuries derailed Jones’ MVP case, and Indy has been unable to get back on track ever since.

Kalshi markets now forecast:

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^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC}