NFL Week 1 power rankings: Everybody's still undefeated!

The NFL regular season doesn’t kick off for another few hours, but half the league already has a storyline attached to it like a tumor. The Raiders spent the first overall pick on a quarterback and then benched him before he threw a real pass. Kyler Murray left the desert for Minnesota, and Arizona gets to start over with a guy who went 1-11 as their starter last year… and he is clearly their best option.

But talk is cheap. Despite all the noise, every team is still undefeated. Every fan base still believes. It's the one week of the year where a bad offensive line is still a rumor and not yet an indisputable fact.

So rather than buying into the preseason hype, let’s take a look at what the markets are saying. Here are 32 teams ranked by what people are actually willing to put money behind in Kalshi’s pro football markets. Some of these rankings will look very smart by October. Others will look like Rob Gronkowski's high school algebra test scores.

So without further ado, let's get into Kalshi’s 2026 NFL Power Rankings (Week 1).

Remember, this column is commentary on Kalshi market prices, not advice. Trading involves risk, as does choosing to be a Jets fan.

^{For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL.}

The Rams are expected to be the best team in the league this year. Expectations bring pressure, but so too do Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald. Their coach is a genius, their quarterback a future Hall of Famer and their owner spends freely. What could go wrong?

Answer: It's the NFL. Check back with us in a few weeks.

First game: vs. 49ers (in Australia), Thursday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Power Score: 44.4
Current projected win total: 12.4.

For decades Buffalo couldn't beat a guy named Brady, so this year they are promoting one named Brady to head coach. The window is still open for this team to make a run, but until they get a ring, Bills Mafia remains nothing more than a glorified crew from Upstate New York.

First game: at Texans, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Power Score: 40.0
Current projected win total: 11.3.

A coach with 18 years and 180 wins was politely asked to leave in exchange for a coach with zero head coaching wins and a newly minted Jesse at the helm. The Lamar Jackson window won't be open forever, and neither will the Ravens receivers.

First game: at Colts, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Power Score: 38.5
Current projected win total: 11.5.

Seattle won the Super Bowl, returns 20 of 22 starters, and is one of the youngest defending champion teams ever. So of course, they're ranked fourth. We see real potential for a Tom Hanks-Meg Ryan rom-com titled 'Sleeping on Seattle.'

First game: vs. Patriots, Wednesday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Power Score: 37.6
Current projected win total: 11.5.

Kansas City Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes is back, but will his swagger be back with him? The bull case is that with Andy Reid at the helm and the return of Eric Bieniemy at offensive coordinator you can't count them out. The bear case? Troubles on the offensive line persist, the secondary has issues, and Travis Kelce's decline has been Swift.

First game: vs. Broncos, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Power Score: 35.7
Current projected win total: 10.4.

The Lions Super Bowl chances are getting a little long in the tooth, but there is a path to become king of the NFL jungle. For a franchise that was a laughing stock for years, they have come a long way. The question remains, will Jared Goff be remembered as Detroit's Simba or just another Scar on the franchise?

First game: vs. Saints, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Power Score: 35.6
Current projected win total: 11.5.

They say defense wins championships. If that's true, pencil the Texans in now. But can their defense win a championship with CJ Stroud at quarterback behind one of the worst offensive lines in football? Houston won't find themselves in many shootouts this year, but that doesn't mean there won't be battles. Everything is bigger in Texas, except the point totals.

First game: vs. Bills, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Power Score: 35.8
Current projected win total: 10.8.

Last year New England rode a historically soft schedule to a 14-3 record and a snow-plus-Bo-Nix-injury-aided trip to the Super Bowl. This season brings a much tougher regular season schedule that will either prove their doubters wrong or expose them like an old man caught up in a Florida massage parlor sting.

First game: at Seahawks, Wednesday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Power Score: 35.1
Current projected win total: 10.4.

Every Bengals season starts with the same prayer: keep Joe Burrow upright for 17 weeks. But lately, every season is shattered when Glass Joe inevitably breaks. Will this year be different? Perhaps the Football Gods know, but we don't. Still, like their quarterback, the Bengals are a fashionable choice for people of certain tastes.

First game: vs. Buccaneers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Power Score: 35.5
Current projected win total: 11.

The Eagles' Nick Sirianni already has a ring, which buys him the right to make decisions that look insane in real time and only make sense in the highlight reel. Fourth and six, game basically won, he goes for it anyway. Having a fiery Italian run your operation is great when things are good, but tends to end in a hole in the desert, especially for guys named Nicky.

First game: vs. Commanders, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Power Score: 34.9
Current projected win total: 10.8.

The Chargers are everybody's trendy pick and nobody's safe bet, as usual. The addition of Mike McDaniel with the talents of Justin Herbert is intriguing, but won't matter if he can't stay upright. That said, after getting engaged to Madison Beer it would be understandable if Herbert prefers not to be upright.

First game: vs. Cardinals, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Power Score: 34.8
Current projected win total: 10.5.

Denver seems like a sexy pick until you realize they were 11-2 in one-score games last year, and means tend to get reverted to. Add to that the fact that they have the fifth-oldest roster in the league and the Mile High air isn't the only thing that's going to make this squad gasp for breath by November.

First game: at Chiefs, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Power Score: 35.1
Current projected win total: 10.7.

San Francisco is once again betting an entire season on a roster of talented, breakable players staying upright together, which hasn't been a very good plan for the past few years. Still, with Shanahan at the helm they will always be relevant. Backing the 49ers is a risky play, but there's always a chance you could strike gold. And from what I’ve been reading in the press, Dre Greenlaw might be just the guy to find it.

First game: at Rams (in Australia), Thursday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Power Score: 32.8
Current projected win total: 10.5.

It's Super Bowl or bust in Dallas again, a sentence this franchise has recycled since before some of its rookies were born. The bust part has the much longer track record. Will Jerry Jones ever see another Cowboys Super Bowl title? Probably not, but he got to see them at #14 on the Kalshi Power Rankings, so life's not too bad.

First game: at Giants, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Power Score: 33.1
Current projected win total: 10.3.

Green Bay is replacing Micah Parsons' pass rush while he rehabs a torn ACL, and quietly hoping nobody ever sees the Josh Jacobs video the front office insists it hasn't seen either.

First game: at Vikings, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Power Score: 32.4
Current projected win total: 10.3.

The Bears enter year two of Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams with high hopes, but hopes can only get so high in Chicago. After a solid season featuring an NFL-record seven fourth quarter comebacks, fans in Chi-town know better than anyone that such luck is not sustainable. The pieces are there, but Rome Odunze wasn't built in a day and so the Bears sit solidly in the middle of the pack at #16.

First game: at Panthers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Power Score: 31.5
Current projected win total: 9.8.

Jacksonville won its final eight games last year, took the AFC South at 13-4, and still isn't favored to win the division again, because apparently a Coach of the Year finalist and an MVP finalist at quarterback have to do it twice before anyone believes it. Maybe this year people will realize that the coach with the movie director name and the long-haired, free-thinking quarterback could be more than a flash in the pan.

First game: vs. Browns, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Power Score: 31.3
Current projected win total: 9.9.

This year Kevin O'Connell hands the keys to Kyler Murray, a rental car arrangement that you absolutely buy the insurance on. He's electric when healthy, but that isn't very often. A torn ACL in 2022, a foot injury that ended 2025 after five games, that's two lost seasons in the last four. The Vikings are guaranteed to get into a crash this year. The only question is whether or not it will require the Jaws of Life to escape.

First game: vs. Packers, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Power Score: 28.4
Current projected win total: 9.5.

As the Baker Mayfield show winds down, the Buccaneers have more questions than answers. Mayfield didn't get his contract extension and is publicly playing the 'disrespect' card, but with Mike Evans gone, so is his safety net. The market has Tampa priced like a high-risk penny stock, and right now, the risk of bankruptcy appears very real.

First game: at Bengals, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Power Score: 28.9
Current projected win total: 9.3.

Colts owner-by-inheritance Carlie Irsay-Gordon returns to the sidelines this year. Shane Steichen will too, we assume. The Anthony Richardson experiment is on hold while the Daniel Jones one resumes. Paying $88 million to watch Danny Dimes manage a football game is an interesting choice, particularly when the guy you drafted fourth overall is watching from the bench with a trade request in his pocket.

First game: vs. Ravens, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Power Score: 27.3
Current projected win total: 8.8.

The Steelers bring back 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers to lead an offense that features weapons like D.K. Metcalf and... well, they have D.K. Metcalf. The defense, led by T.J. Watt may still be a Steel Curtain, but the offensive line is more like Aluminum Drapes. Let’s just say Rodgers is much more likely to take a trip with ayahuasca than he is to take a trip to the Super Bowl.

First game: vs. Falcons, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Power Score: 27.7
Current projected win total: 9.2.

New Orleans is starting Tyler Shough ahead of Spencer Rattler and Zach Wilson. There are teams like the Rams that have an embarrassment of riches. Then there's the Saints where you have to cut the last two words off that sentence like the eye holes they used to cut in the paper bags to wear in the stands.

First game: at Lions, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Power Score: 26.4
Current projected win total: 8.5.

The Giants aren't the worst team in New York, but that isn't saying much. Can John Harbaugh take another quarterback that doesn't know when to slide and a running back that can't spell CTE to the promised land? If you saw his 'inspirational speech' to the team on social media, this question answers itself.

First game: vs. Cowboys, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Power Score: 24.6
Current projected win total: 7.7.

Carolina won its division by default last year finishing 8-9, the NFC South's version of a participation trophy. Will Bryce Young prove to be worth the first overall pick or end up gone from Carolina in our minds? He has the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year in wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan and plays in the league's worst division, so the time to put up or shut up has officially arrived.

First game: vs. Bears, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Power Score: 24.2
Current projected win total: 7.3.

Washington changed its name six years ago chasing a fresh start. Their record since is 43-57-1, not exactly the rebrand anyone had in mind. Jayden Daniels is the best argument for optimism this franchise has had in a decade, but if he can't stay healthy the only thing Washington fans will be commanding is season ticket refunds.

First game: at Eagles, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Power Score: 24.6
Current projected win total: 7.3.

Atlanta kept four quarterbacks on the 53-man roster and still doesn't know who's starting Week 1. This is only one of the many reasons they find themselves at #26 on the Kalshi Power Rankings. Their top running back Bijan Robinson is a fantasy darling, but their whole team is a reality disaster.

First game: at Steelers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Power Score: 24.3
Current projected win total: 6.7.

Tennessee is known for its music, mountains and whiskey which is a good thing for the fans of their football team, because all three are a necessary distraction from the product they put on the field. They parted ways with Will Levis, whose best film is locked behind NSFW filters. Now it's Cam Ward's show, and the Titans just have to hope he isn't another Ward of the state.

First game: vs. Jets, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Power Score: 22.1
Current projected win total: 6.5.

The Raiders spent the top pick on Fernando Mendoza and then handed the job to Kirk Cousins, which is like buying an expensive steak to go, putting it straight in your freezer, and eating at Subway instead. Cousins is 38 and steady in the way a furniture set from Ikea is; he fills the room, he's relatively functional, and he's gone the second something better shows up. Mendoza, on the other hand, is more like a robot, which is something we all need to get used to anyway.

First game: vs. Dolphins, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Power Score: 21.2
Current projected win total: 6.3.

Only Cleveland could find themselves with Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders as their two best options at quarterback going into the season. Sanders constantly needs to have his ego massaged and Watson… well, we'll let you do that math. In both cases, they are running out of willing participants to do the job.

First game: at Jaguars, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Power Score: 20.6
Current projected win total: 5.9.

Geno Smith is back with the team that drafted him, hunting for whatever worked in Seattle and vanished everywhere since. The last time the Jets were relevant Mark Sanchez was better known for his butt fumble than nearly getting stabbed to death by a truck driver. The last time they won a Super Bowl was 1969. The next time they win sure as hell won't be anytime soon.

First game: at Titans, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Power Score: 20.2
Current projected win total: 6.1.

Over the past year Miami has fired their GM, fired their head coach, and released their quarterback, resulting in a record $99 million dead cap hit. They cleaned house, but managed to take on a massive mortgage in the process, which has historically been the playbook for South Florida real estate. Only in this case, the market crash already happened.

First game: at Raiders, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Power Score: 19.0
Current projected win total: 4.

Arizona is turning back to Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. And why not? He only went 1-11 last year when he stepped in for an injured Kyler Murray. It's management decisions like this that have the Cardinals at the bottom of this list, a spot that will be fiercely competed for all season. One day Arizona may become a relevant NFL team, but at the moment, they remain nothing more than a mirage.

First game: at Chargers, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Power Score: 18.8
Current projected win total: 4.4.

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