Voters from the Empire State will head to the polls Tuesday. One of the more interesting races of the 2026 primary season will occur in the heart of Manhattan, New York's 12th Congressional District. Longtime Congressman Jerry Nadler's retirement has opened a seat in this Democratic stronghold, with a slew of candidates vying for the Democratic nomination ahead of the November election.
Five candidates participated in the June 10th debate. The Kalshi markets value only two of those candidates above single-digit odds: Micah Lasher and Alex Bores. Both Lasher and Bores are members of the New York State Assembly.
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Micah Lasher is no stranger to New York politics. Before starting his own political career, Lasher worked for New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Governor Kathy Hochul. Alex Bores, the former Palantir data scientist, has made AI regulation a hallmark of his campaign. His push for AI regulation has made him the target of more than $7 million in attack ads from PACs aligned with OpenAI, while receiving millions from Anthropic.
The race is quickly becoming one of the most expensive primaries of the 2026 cycle, with AI companies pouring money into Manhattan and seeking to influence the first wave of national AI regulation. Currently, Lasher has the best odds in the race at 61%, while Bores has a 33% chance to win the nomination.
Also in the race is Jack Schlossberg, the grandson of John F. Kennedy. He has garnered national attention by using his massive social media following to fuel his campaign. Endorsed by Nancy Pelosi, the 33-year-old candidate has a 2% chance to win the nomination. You can track live odds for the race on Kalshi.
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