Olympic hockey semifinals: Canada priced as odds-on favorite over Finland

The Canadian women’s ice hockey team fell just short of gold on Thursday, but the men’s side is alive and well.

However, the Canadians must first get through Finland in order to reach the gold-medal game. That semifinal bid is set for today, 10:40 a.m. ET, at Milano Santagiulia IHO Arena, and Kalshi’s traders are pricing the Canadians as a heavy favorite.

The Finns will not go quietly. As reigning gold-medalists in this event, expect the team to play with pride and poise. Of course, the winner here clinches a spot on the podium, and Kalshi is currently giving Canada a 96% chance to medal.

Let’s dive into the head-to-head matchup between Canada and Finland.

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_{This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.}

Per Kalshi, Canada is priced at 78¢ to defeat Finland in the semifinals. Traders are anticipating the Canadians to make a statement in this spot, as the red Maple Leaf failed to finish within the top-four countries at the 2022 Winter Games (Beijing).

Finland enters this meeting on a four-game winning streak. The Finns have lost only one game in Milano, which came in the opener against Slovakia, who will take on the United States in the other semifinal match. Finland boasts a talented and confident group; all but one player on the roster is signed to an NHL team.

Across the way, Canada has one of the most decorated squads in Olympic history. The Canadians have played to an undefeated 4-0 record, displaying impressive tenacity. Their front line features some of the top names in the sport: forwards Connor McDavid, Macklin Celebrini, and Nathan MacKinnon, all of whom are playing at an elite level.

The Finns will do everything they can to slow down McDavid and Celebrini. The two Canadians have combined for 20 total points so far. They are also listed as the two favorites to be named Olympic men’s hockey MVP. From there, fellow forward Sidney Crosby has not been ruled out despite leaving the quarterfinal game with a knee injury.

Artturi Lehkonen of the Colorado Avalanche (the current Stanley Cup favorites on Kalshi) has done well to pace the Finns in scoring, displaying five points and two goals. Regardless, it has been Finland’s defense that has been more impressive. Goalie Juuse Saros is on a heater in the net. His 93.8% save rate is the third-best clip in Milan.

Both teams are coming off gritty overtime wins in the quarterfinal round. Canada was on the ropes versus Czechia, but found two late goals to steal the win. Conversely, Finland outlasted Switzerland on Wednesday after falling behind 2-0 in the first period.

Overall, Canada and Finland have 13 wins apiece over one another on the international level. Canada emerged victorious in their last two head-to-head meetings at the Winter Olympics.

According to Kalshi, Canada remains the favorite to win all the marbles. 

Presently, the Canadians show a 50% probability to earn a record-10th gold medal in this event. They arrived in Milan atop the hockey totem pole (priced at 42¢ here on February 6), and they hope to depart in the same fashion.

Behind Canada, its neighbor to the south, the United States, is labeled as the second-favorite to win gold. Team USA shows a champion price tag of 46¢ right now. However, the Americans must first get through Slovakia in Friday’s semifinal (3:10 p.m. ET); Kalshi’s traders are giving the U.S. an 88% likelihood to defeat the Slovaks.

At this time, traders are bearish on Finland and Slovakia in the Milano futures market. The Finns are available on Kalshi for six cents to win gold, while the Slovaks have only a two-percent chance in the same category.

Kalshi markets now forecast:

Men’s Olympic Ice Hockey

To win Men’s Olympic Ice Hockey Gold Medal:

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