Traders believe Attorney General Pam Bondi is the most likely Trump cabinet member to leave office by the end of the year, amid reports that President Donald Trump is dissatisfied with her performance.
Bondi currently leads the market for the first Trump cabinet member to leave office at 30%, the highest her price has traded since the market started in January of last year. She’s followed by Homeland Security chief Kristi Noem at 21%. Noem has come under fire for sanctioning Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids on several U.S. cities, including the raid in Minneapolis that led to the death of Renee Good. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer is third at 15% and faces job misconduct allegations.
Why is Pam Bondi in trouble?
Traders view Bondi as the most vulnerable to losing her job due to Trump’s concerns over her job performance. A new report from The Wall Street Journal says that President Trump is still unhappy with Bondi’s inability to be more aggressive in pursuing cases against some of his political adversaries, such as former FBI Director James Comey and New York Democratic Attorney General Letitia James.
In what some have speculated was an accident, Trump posted on his Truth Social account his frustration with Bondi’s lack of prosecutions. Insiders who spoke to the Wall Street Journal also say Trump is upset with Bondi over her handling of the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files. TMZ obtained footage of the president during a recent visit to a Ford plant in Michigan, raising his middle finger to a worker who shouted “pedophile protector” at him as he left the building.
What about Lori Chavez-DeRemer?
Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer may not currently be the most likely cabinet member to exit first, but her price is rising due to a recent scandal over alleged professional misconduct.
Two of Chavez-DeRemer’s top aides, including chief of staff Jihun Han and deputy chief of staff Rebecca Wright, are on administrative leave following a complaint filed in December by her department’s inspector general’s office.
The complaint alleges that Chavez-DeRemer used her publicly funded travel expenses to visit family and friends and had an extramarital affair with a member of her staff. Her price on the market jumped by 29 points since the New York Post filed a report about the complaint last Friday.
It’s also worth noting that there is a 54% chance Bondi leaves her position some time before 2027, as well as a 57% chance for Chavez-DeRemer.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now forecast:
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