With Week 18 in the books, the official pro football playoff field has been set, with 14 teams vying for the ultimate prize.
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Although the championship game won’t be played until February 8, Kalshi’s traders are already forecasting Seattle as the most likely participant as well as the most likely to bring home the trophy.
The team is priced at 37¢ to win the National Conference prior to the postseason. Conversely, Denver shows the highest probability (28%) to come out of the American Conference, which would present a rematch from the 2013-14 championship.
The opening-round action will commence this Saturday. That will be led by Los Angeles (R)-Carolina and Green Bay-Chicago before giving way to Sunday’s slate of Buffalo-Jacksonville, San Francisco-Philadelphia and Los Angeles (C)-New England. There’s also one contest on Monday (Jan. 12), featuring Houston-Pittsburgh.
Keep in mind, Seattle and Denver both earned first-round byes this season after securing the top seeds from each conference.
Let’s see how these squads stack up in terms of their chances of taking home the trophy.
This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.
As noted, No. 1 Denver is the market leader on the American side. No. 2 New England (21¢), No. 6 Buffalo (16¢), No. 5 Houston (15¢) and No. 3 Jacksonville (15¢) are all priced respectably to win the conference. No. 7 Los Angeles and No. 4 Pittsburgh round out the bottom, as each are tagged with a six percent chance here.
Denver hopes its bruising defense can take them to the promised land. They have surrendered just 91.1 rushing YPG on the year. To up the ante, Denver led the entire league with a whopping 68 sacks.
New England and Buffalo are both led by prolific quarterback play. Buffalo’s Josh Allen (64.7 QBR) is the reigning MVP while New England’s Drake Maye (77.2 QBR) is viewed by Kalshi’s traders as a current MVP frontrunner.
Houston and Jacksonville are also known to play with physicality and aggression. Houston held its 2025 opponents to only 17.4 PPG, issuing plenty of punishment along the way. Jacksonville has done well to force turnovers, registering 31 takeaways. Also, the offense from Duval County has scored 30 or more points in six of their past 10 games.
No. 1 Seattle will enjoy the weekend off. As mentioned above, they are the most probable team to win the pro football championship. The squad from the Pacific Northwest is powered by an athletic defensive backfield (18 INTs) and a swarming pass rush (47 sacks). They have kept opponents to only 17.2 PPG this year, which was the league’s best in 2025.
No. 5 Los Angeles (26¢) and No. 3 Philadelphia (16¢) are seen as the next two contenders to win the conference. Los Angeles boasts a well-rounded group that has quarterback Matthew Stafford (71.0 QBR) as its maestro. The 17-year veteran led all others with 46 touchdowns this season. Meanwhile, Philly is still the defending champs, but the Birds lost four of seven games to close the campaign.
Subsequently, No. 2 Chicago (9¢), No. 6 San Francisco (8¢), No. 7 Green Bay (7¢) and No. 4 Carolina (2¢) all display a likelihood under 10% to reach the big game in Silicon Valley.
Chicago presents an interesting case here. The group from the Midway features a talented signal caller in Caleb Williams (58.3 QBR) and a ravenous secondary; Chicago’s defense swiped 23 interceptions in 2025, which paced the league.
Despite an onslaught of injuries for San Francisco, the red and gold could come on strong. San Francisco has reached either the conference or league title game in its past seven trips to the playoffs.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now forecast:
American Conference
National Conference
Championship Game
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Image Source: Isaac Lind
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