After leading before and on Election Day, incumbent mayor Karen Bass's chances have dropped sharply in the race to run Los Angeles.
Prediction market-implied odds of Bass securing a win in the mayoral race have fallen to under 2% as of Wednesday at 2:55 p.m. ET, down from 80.9% on Election Day, a reversal in the last 24 hours.
Challenger Nithya Raman is now the heavy favorite at 98%, a 78 percentage point increase from Tuesday night, according to Kalshi's event contract of the Los Angeles mayoral winner. The flip is the fourth lead change in the past 30 days.
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Major news organizations have yet to announce their projection of who will emerge victorious. The contest between Raman and Bass is still neck and neck with the challenger carrying 51% and the incumbent with 49% of the vote, a margin of about 17,000 votes, ABC7 Los Angeles reported on Wednesday, while the Associated Press estimates 63% of votes have been counted.
The early lead suggests Raman is likely to keep her lead, per the Los Angeles Times. “The ballots yet to be counted — mostly coming from vote-by-mail ballots sent on or just before election day — tend to come from younger, more progressive voters, election experts say, so they expect the next few tallies will swing further in Raman’s favor,” reported The Times in a report published at 2:22 p.m. ET.
The Los Angeles County Registrar scheduled its first ballot counting update on Wednesday evening between 4 and 5 p.m. PST.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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