With Democrats set to take control of the House and Senate in January 2027, Kalshi traders see an increased likelihood that President Donald Trump will face a third impeachment.
The Kalshi market for Trump's impeachment rose 6.6 percentage points, from 70% before Election Day to 76.6%.
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The market for Trump's impeachment and removal from office also rose, climbing six percentage points from 22.3% to 28.3%.
Democratic control raises impeachment prospects
Democratic control of Congress could lead to new investigations into the Trump administration and potentially pave the way for impeachment proceedings.
Writing in The Guardian, Claire Finkelstein attributed Democrats' electoral success partly to voters' distrust of the Trump administration and dissatisfaction with its economic policies.
“One poll in September of this year found that 53% of those surveyed believe the president is corrupt,” Finkelstein wrote. “Another identified growing disappointment among Republican voters relating to the economy. Voters held Trump responsible for rising prices, particularly for pain at the pump.”
Forbes cited an October 2026 Politico poll finding that 50% of respondents supported Democrats impeaching Trump if they regained control of Congress.
“Even more Americans, 54%, said they believe Trump has committed impeachable offenses,” Forbes wrote. “The Politico poll found 24% of Americans believe impeaching Trump would make him more popular, compared to 18% who said they think it would make Trump less popular.”
Some congressional Republicans have also acknowledged the possibility of another impeachment effort. Newsweek reported that Rep. Steve Scalise, the Republican House Majority Leader, “expects an impeachment bid against Trump on ‘day one’ if Democrats win the midterms.”
The Washington Post reported that even some of the firms that worked with the Trump administration such as Palantir, OpenAI, and Meta are bracing for the possibility of Congressional investigations. Firms with ties to Donald Trump Jr. that received Pentagon funding will be a top priority for Democratic investigators, according to anonymous sources.
“Democrats are preparing to investigate some defense technology firms, as well as manufacturing and mining companies that serve the military supply chain, according to conversations with nearly a dozen congressional staffers, political lobbyists, lawyers, investors and executives, some of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about pending plans,” The Washington Post reported.
The Independent reported that Democrats could interpret their election victories as a mandate to investigate Trump and his administration.
“The newly emboldened Democrats are likely to interpret the outcome as a mandate from an unhappy electorate to go after the Trump administration,” The Independent wrote. “They are expected to wield the powers of the congressional committees to launch probes into the president and his inner circle.”
The takeaway:
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