Pro basketball Rookie of the Year odds: Flagg vs. Knueppel

Professional basketball will conclude its regular season this Sunday, which means league award winners will soon be announced. This year, one of the most exciting categories has been the Rookie of the Year (ROY) race.

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The current campaign has showcased a talented crop of first-year players. Be that as it may, the ROY award will almost certainly go to either Dallas’ Cooper Flagg or Charlotte’s Kon Knueppel, who were teammates last year at Duke University.

According to Kalshi, Flagg is listed as the market favorite but Knueppel still maintains a puncher’s chance. Also, we should not rule out a tie in this instance.

Let’s dive into the pro basketball ROY market at Kalshi, which has a trading volume of nearly $5.5M thus far.

_{This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.}

As the reigning No. 1 draft pick, Dallas forward Cooper Flagg did well to live up to expectations this year. Flagg’s efforts on the court, averaging 21.1 PPG, 6.6 RPG and 4.6 APG, have earned him major respect amongst Kalshi’s traders in the Rookie of the Year market; he presently carries a 63% probability to win the coveted award.

Flagg opened the season as the favorite with a 64¢ price tag on October 21. However, he and Knueppel have swapped places on Kalshi four times so far.

Most recently, Flagg surged ahead on April 5. That is attributed to the fact that the 2025 National College Player of the Year has scored a total of 96 points over his past two games.

Standing at 6-foot-9, Flagg operates with a hyper-dynamic skill set. He is a strong ballhandler with a wide range of scoring moves. Incidentally, Dallas’ lack of on-court talent has forced the team to rely heavily on his abilities.

Flagg is the youngest pro player to score at least 50 points in a single game, which he accomplished on April 3. Fast forward, and he is now hoping to be the 25th first overall pick to win Rookie of the Year.

Charlotte small forward Kon Knueppel has already established himself as one of the premier shooters in the association. He has made 265 three-pointers this season (a rookie record), converting from behind the arc at a 43% clip. At Kalshi, he is now priced at 32¢ to win the 2025-26 ROY award.

Knueppel, selected by Charlotte with the fourth overall pick last year, has been one of the top stories of the current campaign. Knueppel’s averages of 18.7 PPG and 5.3 RPG have earned him respect across the league, and Charlotte’s recent success (8-2 over its past 10 contests) has only improved his reputation.

For his peak pricing, Knueppel’s chances reached 81% last Thursday. Still, Flagg’s scoring output over the past few days has pushed him ahead of Knueppel.

Charlotte has three remaining games in the regular season, which will give Knueppel several opportunities (including Tuesday against Boston on NBC) to flip this market for a fifth time. However, Flagg and Dallas have four remaining games (including a game tonight against Los Angeles (C)).

Dallas is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but Charlotte is still very much in the mix. At this time, Charlotte is priced at two cents on Kalshi to win the league title, while simultaneously showing a 5% chance to become the Eastern Conference champion.

Boston is labeled as the favorite to win the East (40¢). Kalshi is also giving reigning-champion Oklahoma City a 41% probability to run it back.

Kalshi markets now forecast:

Pro basketball Rookie of the Year winner:

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Follow Gabriel Santiago on Instagram: @ByGabrielSantiago
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^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}