South Africa and Canada both make their first-ever World Cup knockout appearance today in Los Angeles, with the loser eliminated on the spot. Kalshi traders give Canada a 72% chance to advance, with South Africa at 29%.
There is no draw outcome on the board today. If the match is level after 90 minutes, it goes to extra time and then penalties if needed, since a winner has to be decided.
What's at stake today
South Africa reached the knockout stage for the first time in four World Cup appearances after finishing second in Group A, according to Wikipedia's tournament record. Bafana Bafana opened with a 2-0 loss to co-host Mexico, drew Czechia 1-1, then beat South Korea 1-0 on the final matchday to edge out the Koreans for the group's automatic qualifying spot.
Canada finished second in Group B after a group stage that doubled as a coming-of-age story for the co-hosts. The Reds drew Bosnia and Herzegovina 1-1 in their opener, routed Qatar 6-0 behind a Jonathan David hat trick, then lost 3-1 to Switzerland on the final day, a result that cost them top spot in the group, per Yahoo Sports.
That hat trick made David, Canada's all-time leading goalscorer, the difference after a four-game scoreless drought to start his World Cup career. Canada coach Jesse Marsch said after the Qatar win that "no Canadian will forget this day."
The path to the Round of 16
Today's result decides which of these two teams reaches the Round of 16, where the winner will face whichever of the Netherlands or Morocco comes through their own Round of 32 match on Monday, CBS Sports reported.
Kalshi traders give Canada a 71% chance to reach the next round, with South Africa at 27%, figures that track closely with today's match odds since this game is the only thing standing between either team and the Round of 16.
World Cup winner
France is the favorite to win the tournament on Kalshi at 25%, with Argentina close behind at 22%. Spain and England round out the top four, both near 10%, while Portugal and Brazil follow in the 6% range.
South Africa and Canada sit at the opposite end of the market, with neither given much more than a token chance: South Africa is priced at 0.1% and Canada at 0.2% to lift the trophy. But despite the odds, today's match is the real milestone for both teams.
Kalshi markets now predict:
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