The week ahead: Trump turns 80, Elon hits a trillion

Good afternoon, traders.

From sports, to politics, to economics, there’s a lot to dig into this week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is dropping the May CPI report. Teams from across the globe are headed to the U.S. to compete in the world’s largest soccer tournament. And last but not least, a bunch of muscular dudes will attempt to knock each other out on the White House lawn.

Before we get into soccer, microeconomics, and people maiming each other, let’s talk about how Elon Musk is about to make even more money.

^{For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with UFC or FIFA.}

It’s worth mentioning that the SpaceX IPO, the largest IPO ever by a WIDE margin, is happening on Friday. If your broker didn’t think you were cool enough to give you shares and you feel like you’re missing out on the hype, don’t worry. There are tons of Kalshi markets surrounding the event, including ones about when Elon Musk will become a trillionaire, and how rich he will become before 2027. 

Two years ago, the phrase “UFC fight on the White House lawn” would have seemed like a headline you’d read on a certain satirical news site. For better or worse, depending on how you view it, today the headline is real.

This coming Sunday, which is also President Trump’s 80th birthday, UFC Freedom 250 will take place on the White House lawn, featuring Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethje in the Lightweight bout as the Main event, with Alex Pereira and Ciryl Gane in the Heavyweight Co-Main event.

Now instead of acting like 19-year-olds at a UFC watch party and pretending to be experts on fighting styles and technique, we’re gonna focus on the fact that this is one of the strangest collisions of politics, celebrities, and media that we’ve seen in a long time.

The UFC has turned itself from a poorly known and controversial organization into one of the most powerful entertainment groups in America. Landing a spot at the White House might quite literally be the strongest possible symbol that the fighting industry has gone mainstream. But one interesting aspect as to why they have become so mainstream is likely because they are phenomenal at courting celebrities to attend their events.

Oftentimes during broadcasts, the camera will cut to highlight actors, billionaires, rappers, and even streamers sitting in the audience, which makes for some hilarious combinations of names. Naturally, there’s a prediction market for which celebrities will attend the event this Sunday.

But beyond just who will be attending, the preliminary bouts would themselves be enough for a monumental fight, with individuals like “Suga” Sean O’Malley and Derrick Lewis also fighting on Sunday night. Whether you’re tuning in because you care about fighting, celebrities, or just want to see the monumental event take place, one thing is certain: it will be entertaining.

If seeing people punch each other in the face on the White House lawn isn’t your thing, and you’re not from New York or San Antonio, but you still like sports, there is another event that you can join billions of other people in watching this week: The World Cup.

Every four years, the soccer (or football, if you’re used to paying 45% income tax) spectacle features the best players from around the world all competing for their countries. The 2026 tournament is being hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, and the first match will happen at Estadio Azteca. (Commonly called Mexico City Stadium, but we think the Spanish name is way cooler).

Though the main focus of the cameras is the players, the World Cup brings together a lot more than just the 22 players on the field. As the most popular sport in the world, soccer has some of the most die-hard fans of any sport. Often referred to as “ultras”, these groups of fans' love for their team is greater than their love for pretty much everything else in life. While there are a couple of notable groups, ultras exist across all continents. Just take a look at the top photo from a group of Argentinian ultras and the bottom photo of Croatian ultras.

While we aren’t certain that NFL stadiums won’t look like the photos above this week, we have a pretty good idea that the fanbase will be very different for this tournament compared to past ones because of one thing: price.

It was expected that the price of tickets for the World Cup would be higher than in previous years because of the U.S. market and inflation. What was not expected was that the average cheapest ticket for group stage games would be over $1000, and some tickets for the final would fetch over $2 million dollars.

This steep price means that there will be a lot of people stuck watching from outside the stadium, and like the college basketball tournament earlier this year, that’s probably going to look like watching the game while pretending to be working.

Before we move on to the next topic, though, one aspect of the World Cup worth highlighting is how it brings together the GOATs of the sport with decades of experience and the newcomers. Seeing Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo on the same field as an up-and-coming 19-year-old from a country that most people can’t point to on a map has always been something I look forward to.

But there’s one thing I look forward to even more than that.

Last but not least (well, it probably is least unless you’re a huge nerd), the May 2026 CPI report will be released on Wednesday morning, and people care a bit more about this one than normal.

If you aren’t familiar, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures how much prices are changing for a typical basket of consumer goods and services like rent, groceries, gas, electricity, and multimillion-dollar soccer tickets (kidding about the last one).

The CPI is essentially the government’s main inflation report, and markets care because it determines whether money itself is getting cheaper or more expensive. The April CPI report showed CPI rising 0.6% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year. The core CPI, another metric excluding food and energy, rose 0.4% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year.

If the CPI report comes in cooler than expected, Wall Street traders may lean harder into the idea that inflation is easing and rate cuts are more likely, but if it comes in hotter, the exact opposite could happen. So, depending on whether you think basic things are eating up more and more of your paycheck each month or if the rise in the price of goods is slowing down, you might have a feel for what the report will say.

Hopefully, after reading this, you feel a bit more entertained and informed about what will be happening in the week ahead. Whether you’re looking forward to people getting punched in the face on the White House lawn, people pretending to be getting punched in the face during the World Cup, or the Bureau of Labor Statistics report going out on Wednesday, there are markets on Kalshi to trade these events and tons of others.

Check them out here:

Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}