Several members of Parliament and opposition party leaders in the U.K. are calling for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to step down, and Kalshi markets are reacting.
The world leader resignation market saw Starmer’s price jump from 46.8% to 59% after news broke that he appointed Peter Mandelson as U.S. ambassador despite the latter failing a key vetting process tied to his past associations.
Odds in Starmer’s resignation market have also dropped. Traders now price the odds that Starmer will be out of a job by September at 51%, and give a 40% chance he’ll be ousted by July.
Peter Mandelson’s failed vetting
Reuters reports that Starmer claimed he did not know that Mandelson failed a key vetting procedure before appointing him as the nation’s U.S. ambassador following his large election win in 2024. Mandelson was fired last year when it was revealed he had ties to the late sex offender, according to documents showing Starmer’s staff raised several red flags about the candidate.
Then on Thursday, news emerged that Mandelson failed a security vetting before his appointment to the ambassador post. The BBC reported that Starmer claimed he was unaware of the vetting results, but opposition leaders are questioning his claims of ignorance about the matter.
Calls for resignation
Starmer’s political opponents are calling for his resignation in the wake of the Mandelson scandal.
Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey said Starmer “must go” if it’s revealed that he knew about the failed vetting process and Mandelson’s ties to the deceased sex trafficker. He’s also calling for an investigation into whether he misled Parliament about Mandelson’s past.
PBS News also reported that British police launched an investigation into allegations against Mandelson and that he was charged in February on suspicion of misconduct in public office.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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