It looks like there may not be much competition between the two parties in the South Dakota governor's race this November, but there's plenty of competition between today’s Republican primary candidates.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice.
The market for the South Dakota Republican Governor's nomination shows businessman Toby Doeden in the lead at 54%, followed by U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson at 33%, and Gov. Larry Rhoden at 11%.
Meanwhile, the Republican Party holds a wide lead over the Democratic candidates in the South Dakota Governor winner market. The GOP’s chances of winning are priced at 98% while the Democratic Party sits at 3.7%.
Toby Doeden
Businessman Toby Doeden has been called "the outsider" in the race in a profile from South Dakota News Watch's Alexander Rifaat. He told the website he decided to run after witnessing the assassination attempt on President Donald Trump during his second campaign for president.
"The second Trump stood up and was yelling 'fight, fight, fight,' I knew in that moment God was sending me a message," Doeden said.
He picked up a wave of support in the polls in late May 2026 when he first surged ahead of the pack in a KELOLAND/Emerson poll at 26%.
Dusty Johnson
U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson has served as South Dakota's lone representative for more than seven years. He's said on the campaign trail that his experience on Capitol Hill has prepared him for the governor's office.
The Aberdeen News reported that he's cited his work in the House's bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus "whose stated mission is to change the culture of 'obstructionism' in Washington." He's also vowed to address "South Dakota's rising prison recidivism rate and decreasing education scores." He also told the Searchlight podcast that he'd "strike the right balance" with the construction of new data centers.
Larry Rhoden
Gov. Larry Rhoden has been languishing in the market and the polls, mostly due to his low approval ratings. Rhoden took over the role when Gov. Kristi Noem left in January 2025 to become Secretary of Homeland Security under President Donald Trump. The latest KELOLAND/Emerson College poll shows Rhoden has an approval rating of just 26% while 39% disapprove of the job he's done as governor and 36% "were neutral or had no opinion."
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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