Good afternoon traders,
Today we’re going to be talking about events that mostly concern things happening in Washington DC and on reality TV sets. The Supreme Court normally releases all rulings by the end of June before their summer recess making this week a rather probable window for a batch of decisions, including a couple of major ones.
In addition, the Great American State Fair, a celebration of America's 250th anniversary of statehood, is set to start on Thursday and run through July 10th. Last, and perhaps most importantly, a highly anticipated episode of Love Island airs Monday night.
Let’s get into the newsletter.
This is opinion. Not trading advice. Kalshi is not affiliated with Love Island.
(I can already see that one photo of Michael Burry from The Big Short)
SCOTUS
If you couldn’t tell by its name, the Supreme Court of the United States is the highest court in the country and is responsible for handling high-profile cases that have escalated up the system. The court generally operates by selecting which cases to hear, letting the lawyers duke it out for a couple of weeks, discussing the cases while playing basketball at “The Highest Court in the Land,” a slightly smaller-than-regulation basketball court atop the Supreme Court, and then making announcements before going on summer break.
(A storage facility that was converted to a basketball court sits a floor above where the Supreme Court hears rulings.)
But for an institution with some of the strictest procedures for everything, the way in which they announce rulings is a bit out of place. They often happen on seemingly random mornings in June.
In fact, the traditional way the most important judicial body makes announcements is less predictable than that of Love Island. The Island has a schedule so that you know when someone either becomes a winner or a loser for the rest of their life. The SCOTUS, on the other hand, releases waves of decisions with the only real procedural certainty being that they won’t tell you what decisions they’re releasing when.
If that seems a little odd, you’re not wrong. The way the SCOTUS announces decisions is quite literally the same way shows do cliffhangers. The arguments have been made, the decisions are written, and there’s not really a reason the judges and their clerks should be the only people who know the outcomes before they’re released.
Fortunately, just like Love Island, which we will get to in a bit, there are tons of markets on Kalshi where you can speculate on the results before they are likely announced later this week. However, we can’t say the majority of people care as much about SCOTUS results as they do about reality dating shows.
Stepping away from the way that the Supreme Court announces their decisions, there is another system by which the institution operates that is starting to receive more attention too: appointments and nominations.
Regardless of whether you’re like me and directed most of your energy in high school towards not falling asleep in class because you were up too late 1v1ing your brother on Nuketown, it’s worth revisiting how people actually get on the Supreme Court.
Unlike most other roles in the government, Supreme Court justices aren’t elected and don’t serve fixed terms. When a seat opens, usually either when a justice dies or resigns, the President nominates a replacement who must be confirmed by a simple majority of the Senate before being sworn in. Once they’re in, they have a job for life unless they are impeached and removed. This permanence is where strategy comes into play.
Retirement for Supreme Court justices is often way more strategic than it is personal. If a judge leaves when a like-minded President who controls a simple majority of the Senate is in power, they can pretty much guarantee a carbon copy of themselves will take their place and hold the same positions they did for the next 25-30 years.
If they delay, though, there is the chance the opposite happens which makes for a delicate balance between “How long do I want to play basketball with my fellow justices?” and “How much do I care about there being someone like me in the court?”
Regardless of how the justices choose to answer that question, there seems to be quite a bit of speculation happening on the market, specifically in regard to at least one seat of the court changing during the current Presidency.
Great American State Fair
The Great American State Fair is a 16 day national expo running June 25 through July 10 with more than 150 exhibits showcasing the 50 states and additional U.S. territories, free for public admission. The public-private partnership backed by Trump and hosted by Freedom 250 is promising a World Fair scale celebration on the National Mall with pavilions, military flyovers, a daily rodeo, and obviously a Ferris wheel.
(If there’s a Greenland booth at the fair, this market might change rapidly.)
The official tally shows “all 56 states and territories” attending. There is a qualm however in that some states are electing not to send official delegations due to the cost of staffing a booth for 2+ weeks and simply preferring to celebrate in their own state.
Despite this, organizers say that every group will be represented in some form except for Greenland who just a couple of months ago, it wasn’t unreasonable to think they might get a booth too.
But jokes aside, the fair seems to be shaping up as a cool way for the nation to celebrate its heritage by allowing people to see all of the different offerings and history of each of the different states and hopefully come together. But even if Americans can’t come together over the fair, there is absolutely something they can come together for:
Love Island
Traders are giving Casa Amor a very high chance of kicking off this week on Love Island USA. The event would see islanders split by gender, with one group sent to a new island filled with new contestants of the opposite gender. Back at the original villa, a fresh group of the same gender would arrive to join those who stayed behind. Each group spends a few days getting to know their new co-stars, with no contact allowed between the two groups.
When the groups are eventually reunited on the main island, those who were in the villa before Casa Amor can choose one of the new people as their partner to bring and keep to the main villa.
If that seems like a lot to you, it is. If it also seems like a phenomenal strategy to get people to watch, you’re right, because this genuinely makes me want to tune in and see what happens and I’m clearly not alone. Season 8 of Love Island USA has pulled streaming numbers up 74% and is being viewed on phones and tablets more than any season before.
And that’s really the whole point of this: engineered chaos. Taking couples, scattering them around, surrounding everyone with temptation, and letting the audience watch loyalty be tested in real time is a genius marketing ploy that everyone should tip a hat to.
As of writing this, there’s over $4 million being traded on what happens on the Island with tons of markets to trade on.
Whether it’s the Supreme Court, national celebrations, or drama involving hot people you care about, there’s something for you to pay attention to this week and trade on Kalshi. We hope it’s a good one.
Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
