New Supreme Court Markets

The job of the Supreme Court is to decide if a law is Constitutional. In doing so, it creates Fundamental Law, a type of law more important than the statutes passed by Congress. Fundamental Law is different from normal law because it binds both the citizens and the government.

What the 9 justices on the Supreme Court decide is final; there is no Presidential veto, no Congressional action, no popular recourse that can overturn a SCOTUS ruling.

The Court's decisions affect millions of everyday people, but none of us have the ability to directly participate in a case, even when its outcome will affect our lives. There are convoluted and backdoor ways to hedge exposure to Supreme Court decisions, but these are only possible for large hedge funds with huge resources. Everybody else is left to fend for themselves, and wait patiently for news outlets to report the results.

At Kalshi, our mission is to take tools that used to belong to professional investors, and bring them to everyone. Today we’re doing that again, and in a whole new arena.

For the first time ever, instead of sitting on the sidelines, you’ll be able to trade on Supreme Court decisions and Supreme Court composition.

Let’s see how this can work. We’re about to drop some acronyms, but we promise it’s not that bad!

The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) implemented the COVID-19 Vaccination and Testing Emergency Temporary Standard (ETS). Basically, this is a mandate which requires the employees of many companies to be vaccinated. Currently, the OSHA mandate is blocked by the courts.

Kalshi now has a market called VAXMAND-002 which lets you trade on whether the OSHA mandate will remain blocked. Most court-watchers think that this case will make its way to the Supreme Court, and this contract will let you trade on whether the Court slams the door on the mandate or lets it go into effect.

There are a variety of possible opinions to have about this mandate. You may think it will be good for America or that it will be bad, that it is fully legal or that it is unconstitutional as written.

Before Kalshi, this is where the story would end. You’d hear about the decision in the news, cheer or grumble, and try to adapt as fast as possible to the new reality constructed by the Court. With Kalshi, we’re just getting started.

Anyone who believes that the mandate will be useful, and that the Court will see things their way, can buy NO on the VAXMAND-002 market. They'll get rewarded, with both cash and bragging rights, when proven right.

Or, maybe somebody believes that the mandate will be harmful, in addition to being unconstitutional. They can gear up for a day of celebration by buying YES on the VAXMAND-002 market, and prepare to flaunt their winnings on twitter.

There you have it. For the first time, you can own the decisions being passed down by the Court. Instead of being a passive receiver of the ruling, you can actively trade on the decision, and hedge the risk of a bad one.

But VAXMAND is not the only market Kalshi is launching this week.

Not only can you now trade on the results of cases before the Court, you can also trade on its composition.

The Supreme Court currently has 6 Republican-appointed justices and 3 appointed by Democrats. President Trump appointed a higher-than-average 3 justices.

He also appointed younger justices, which is reflected in the fact that the average age of justices in the Republican camp is 61.5, while the average age of Democrat-appointed justices is 70.3.

The oldest justice on the court, and the one most likely to step down, is an 83 year old Democrat-appointee, Stephen Breyer, who was nominated by Bill Clinton.

On the SCOTUS-001 market, you can trade on whether a new Supreme Court justice will be confirmed before December 31, 2022. If the answer is NO, then depending on the results of the 2022 and 2024 elections, and the decisions of the justices, the Court could contain another justice nominated by a Republican president.

This would have huge ramifications for future decisions on corporate power, free speech, gun rights, abortion rights, and labor rights.

Anybody who thinks that Breyer will “do the right thing” for the Democrats by stepping down and allowing President Biden to nominate a successor can buy YES on SCOTUS-001.

Meanwhile, anybody who thinks the chances of a Republican sweep in 2022, and a Democratic screw-up on the Supreme Court, are high, can buy NO on SCOTUS-001.

In either case, if someone is proven right, they'll get rewarded in the form of payoffs from the contracts they own.

With these markets, you can be an active part of the Supreme Court process, with the ability to hedge your exposure to bad decisions and own your predictions of the Court's actions. You can also do the same with the Supreme Court's composition.

By radically changing who can trade on the actions of the Court, we're taking an bold step towards fairness, and at Kalshi, we’re committed to taking these steps, and bringing you path-breaking markets, long into the future.

Note: the content of this article does not constitute professional or financial advice and is information of a general nature