Another season of the CBS reality competition Survivor is drawing to a close, and traders are pricing Savannah Louie as the favorite to leave the island with the $1 million prize on the Dec. 17 finale.
Louie is currently trading at 89 cents with Rizo Velovic in second at 12 cents and Sophi Balerdi in third at 3 cents. Sage Ahrens-Nichols is trading at 1 cent while Kristina Mills is at less than 1 cent.
Louie has been the overall favorite to win the current Survivor season since trading began on Sept. 29, but there have been some noticeable dips along the way. The market on Louie’s win dropped to its lowest point at 40 cents on Oct. 1 before Velovic surged to his highest level the following day at 64.3 cents. Louie’s trading rebounded and stayed high for the remainder of the market’s run.
The tribe has spoken
Before last week’s penultimate episode, traders were also confident about who would end up in the top five, and who would be packing their bags and heading home, pricing Ramm’s chances at 88.8 cents.
And as forecast, the show’s remaining contestants eliminated Steven Ramm, with a Tribal Council vote of 4-1. Ramm was able to block Louie’s vote. He also cast his elimination vote for Balerdi. But in the end, neither move helped.
While Kalshi traders were likely not surprised, the contestant himself was not. Ramm told Entertainment Weekly’s Dalton Ross that it was a big shock to learn everyone voted for him, including Nichols.
“I don’t know, man, Sage and I, we were so tight ever since that first tribe swap way back when I met her,” Ramm said. “And then later when Jawan [Pitts] joined us and we formed the Bottoms Up Alliance — they didn’t show a lot of it, but her and I were talking game pretty much ever since then.”
The alliance falls apart
Ramm may have been eliminated from the series, but he wasn’t the only contestant to take a hit toward the end of last Wednesday’s episode. According to USA Today’s Anthony Robledo, Louie and Velovic both had immunity idols going into Tribal Council. Balerdi tried to play her “knowledge is power” advantage by stealing a “block a vote” advantage from Ramm, but Ramm played it against Louie before Balerdi could take it.
Nichols and Mills agonized over their decision to vote for Ramm. They spent a good deal of time discussing how Ramm could help them gain an advantage over Louie in an immunity challenge. At the same time, they also realized he could be a threat to them for the same reason.
Ramm said in his exit interview that he’s still proud of his performance, and he can leave the island with his head held high in the knowledge that he made it so far this season.
“It feels pretty amazing not to be an imposter,” Ramm said. “I came in thinking I didn’t deserve to be here; now I realize I do.”
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now forecast:
Savannah Louie winning Survivor Season 49: 86%
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The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.