What are the current odds for the Texas Senate race?

As of Oct. 30, 2026, Kalshi traders give Democrat James Talarico a 70% chance of winning the Texas Senate race — an all-time high. Republican Ken Paxton sits at 30%, his lowest probability since the market launched.

When does early voting end in Texas?

Early voting in Texas concludes on Friday, Oct. 31, 2026. As of Oct. 30, more than 6 million of the state's 18.8 million registered voters had already cast early ballots.

What do recent polls show in the Texas Senate race?

Three polls released in late October 2026 all found Talarico ahead. A CNN/SSRS survey found Talarico leading Paxton 49% to 43% among likely voters — a margin larger than the poll's four-point margin of error.

How have Ken Paxton's odds changed?

Paxton's Kalshi odds have fallen sharply, dropping from 81% when the event contract launched in December 2024 to 30% as of Oct. 30, 2026 — an all-time low.

Who is James Talarico?

James Talarico is the Democratic nominee for the 2026 Texas Senate race, challenging Republican incumbent and former attorney general Ken Paxton.

Talarico's Texas Senate odds hit new high of 70% as early voting ends

Republicans have represented Texas in the US Senate for over three decades, yet the chances of a Democratic candidate securing a seat in the upper chamber duing next week’s election have never been higher.

Prediction market-implied odds of Democrat James Talarico winning the Texas Senate race have reached a new high of 70% on Thursday afternoon, a 10-percentage point increase from one month ago.

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Republican nominee Ken Paxton trails at 30%, the contender's lowest probability ever, down from 81% at the start of the event contract in December 2024. On Thursday, Vice President J.D. Vance spoke at a campaign rally in Weatherford, Texas to encourage constituents to vote for Paxton, because “Texas is one of the most important Senate races anywhere in the United States of America,” per CBS News.

Talarico running in front

Talarico’s odds rising to their highest level came on the same day CNN polls found that 49% of likely voters in Texas leaned toward Talarico, compared with Paxton’s 43%, a six-point gap that is larger than the poll’s margin of error of four percentage points.

The survey, conducted by nonpartisan research firm SSRS between Oct. 20 and 27, showed 63% of likely Latino voters and 64% of likely voters of color in Texas supported the Democratic candidate. “That includes carrying 22% of likely voters of color who say they backed Trump in 2024,” CNN reported on Thursday.

“Talarico’s favorability rating is far more positive than Paxton’s, and most Talarico supporters say their decision is more of a sign of support for the Democrat than an anti-Paxton vote,” CNN continued. “The poll finds Paxton struggling to generate positive support even among his own partisans: 24% hold an unfavorable view of Paxton, compared with just 2% of Democrats holding a negative view of Talarico.”

In the latest poll from civic tech platform ActiVote that was fielded between Oct. 22 and 28, Talarico was found 4.2 percentage points ahead of Paxton, within the survey’s average expected error of 4.9%.

A third poll, conducted by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, found 49% of participants planned to vote for Talarico, while 47% planned to cast their vote for Paxton. Its margin of error stood at nearly 2.2 points.

While all three polls found Talarico ahead, only the CNN/SSRS survey found a lead that exceeded the margin of error. Kalshi traders forecast Talarico winning by 2.7 points.

Early voting winding down

Early voting in Texas is nearing its end, concluding on Friday. So far, 32% of 18.8 million registered voters, or more than 6 million, have already cast an early ballot, according to NBC News citing data provided by TargetSmart. Slightly leading the effort are people who previously voted in Democratic primaries, drawing concern from conservative figures, the Texas Tribune reported on Tuesday.

Derek Ryan, Republican consultant and voter data specialist, told the Texas Tribune, “This is actually new territory. I don’t think that I ever recall a point where voters with previous Democratic primary history have outnumbered voters with previous Republican primary history.”

“In 2022 and 2024 at this point, even in those earlier days, Republican primary voters were making up larger shares,” he added.

The takeaway:

Kalshi markets now predict:

Democratic candidate James Talarico winning the Texas Senate race: 70%
Republican candidate Ken Paxton winning the Texas Senate race: 30%

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