College Football Playoff odds update: Texas Tech, USC sink after road losses

We’re running out of weeks to make mistakes. The first official College Football Playoff rankings are just seven days away.

In our last checkup, #11 Texas and #15 LSU were in trouble. Both picked up marquee wins over the last two weeks to take back a little bit of control.

In the other direction, #8 BYU’s upset loss in Orlando dealt a massive blow to them — and the Big 12’s two-team qualification hopes as #13 Texas Tech also stumbled.

So, here’s how Kalshi's college football traders see the current College Football Playoff picture entering Week 9.

(Click here for Kalshi’s latest College Football Power Rankings.)

^{For informational purposes only. This is opinion, not trading advice. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA. See full disclaimer below.}

Note: A Group of 6 school receives an automatic bid into the CFP, which is why a school with lower overall odds may be featured here. Odds at time of publication.

In our most recent look at this market, LSU had four pending ranked contests plus a road meeting with Auburn remaining. Winning two of those five games earned back a little bit of life.

I’m not even sure that the Tigers will have to run the table if #9 Kentucky and #12 Ole Miss keep winning. A third loss to a playoff hopeful, like Texas or #10 Alabama, seems like just the cost of doing business in a competitive SEC that continues to cannibalize itself weekly.

Now, do they want to use up that margin for error at home this week against the Tide as a 61% favorite? Probably not.

LSU is still third in the nation in opponent yards per play allowed (4.0 YPP). An elite defense with Lane Kiffin at the controls on the other side should scare the dickens out of the rest of these top contenders.

Losers of two straight and missing stud EDGE Collin Simmons, the Longhorns dug deep and found a way to turn back Ole Miss at home on Saturday, keeping their playoff hopes alive.

Like with LSU, it seems there will be a considerable buffer for a three-loss SEC school, and Texas might need it with two ranked matchups ahead, on the road, against LSU and #23 Missouri, who might have Ahmad Hardy back in the lineup at that point.

Arch Manning threw another pair of interceptions on Saturday with a mediocre 7.1 yards per pass attempt (YPA), but two scores on the ground headed up what appears to be an elite Texas run game.

They can’t keep losing stars, though. Simmons will return, but left tackle Trevor Goosby is done for the year with a knee injury. That’s a brutal loss when Manning hasn’t looked comfortable in the pocket as is.

We kind of knew #24 Oklahoma State would be much better in 2026. North Texas finished last season ranked, and the Pokes hired their head coach and brought over their star quarterback, running back, and wide receiver.

Contending for a Big 12 title? That was a stretch. But, the Cowboys have it all out in front of them as BYU, Texas Tech, and #18 Houston all lost on Saturday. With just one conference loss on the road in H-Town, the school will probably be in Dallas for the Big 12 title if they can run the table.

It’s very achievable with just one ranked opponent, Texas Tech at home, remaining. The question is if top NFL Draft prospect Drew Mestemaker, the favorite in No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft odds (41%), can continue to overcome Oklahoma State’s 70th-ranked defense on a YPP allowed basis (5.5).

With the biggest budget in the Big 12 and just three ranked teams on the schedule, many assumed the Texas Tech Red Raiders were shoo-ins for another appearance in the conference title game at worst.

Well, a turbulent summer that saw them lose their quarterback to a betting scandal has resulted in a subpar 2026 campaign. After flirting with upset losses to Houston and Colorado, Cincinnati was clearly the better team on the field last week as the offense sputtered, averaging just 5.3 YPP.

Tech’s path to Dallas is still very much plausible if they can turn back #22 Arizona at home this weekend, followed by Oklahoma State, but the product on the field is the true concern.

The Big 12 won’t send three reps to the CFP, #6 Utah is undefeated, and Texas Tech won’t have a chance to score a marquee resume win like BYU still has over #5 Notre Dame. Unless BYU loses again, the Red Raiders have to run the table and beat Utah in the Big 12 Championship to make it.

Here’s your update on the Group of 6 automatic bid.

James Madison’s 34-31 loss to Appalachian State should all but eliminate the Dukes, who were in prime position during our last update, from the CFP. With the 129th-ranked strength of schedule, you just can’t lose.

Kalshi traders have announced support for #20 Boise State (48%), but the Broncos will have to dispatch Oregon State (17%) twice at home to solidify that spot while avoiding any upset. The Beavers can actually make a strong case for themselves with two wins in that series, considering their losses to Houston and Texas Tech were good ones.

New Mexico (31%) from the Mountain West is another interesting candidate. They'd be 12-1 if they run the table with one close, competitive loss to Oklahoma in Norman.

Calamity could still invite an 11-1 James Madison team back into the mix, but it would probably require an unexpected loss from all three alternatives.

I don’t know if seats can get hotter than Lincoln Riley’s in Southern California at the moment.

Bob Stoops’ heir at Oklahoma just hasn’t been a great fit on or off the field to restore USC to its glory days, and last week’s 24-7 loss to Wisconsin might have been the final straw. It was Riley’s first unranked loss since 2024, and USC is an underdog in three more games this year against #2 Ohio State, #4 Indiana, and #7 UCLA.

Depending on how weird things get in the SEC, it might not even require all three wins for the unranked Trojans to make it. Even two of those would be insane shows of strength, but juxtaposing that possibility with the team we saw on Saturday is why they’re barely on the board.

Without an upset win in the next two weeks, Riley might not be the head coach of Southern Cal, and the school definitely won’t be present in this market on Kalshi.

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