Talarico's Texas Senate odds at 64% as more Paxton recordings surface

State Rep. James Talarico maintains a lead over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton on Kalshi's Texas Senate market as new recordings involving Paxton draw attention to the Republican's campaign.

Kalshi's Texas Senate winner market gives Talarico a 64% chance of winning, compared with 36% for Paxton.

^{For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below.}

Elon Musk has provided significant financial support to an outside political group backing Paxton's Senate campaign. The funding has bolstered efforts to support Paxton as Talarico returns to the campaign trail following a bout with the flu.

The New York Times reported that Musk contributed $10 million to Lone Star Liberty PAC, a political action committee supporting Paxton.

Thanks to the influx of money to Paxton’s campaign, he’s been able to devote “most of [his] more than $76 million in midterm spending” to a canvassing program consisting of 3,000 paid canvassers, and smaller amounts “on advertising, mail, phone calls, and text messages. Much of the messaging targets Democrats, sometimes in misleading or overheated ways.”

Another recording of Paxton discussing Texas politics has surfaced.

This time, Rolling Stone obtained audio of Paxton discussing Texas Governor Greg Abbott's campaign to a group of lobbyists in Washington, D.C.

Paxton told a group of Washington lobbyists that Gov. Greg Abbott was struggling in his reelection campaign despite his name recognition and financial advantages.

Paxton added that Abbott “didn’t have any primary, like I did, that was brutal with all the negative ads. So those are my two disadvantages. One was – three, actually: not having time to raise money, having the negative ads, and my opponent is well-funded and well-known.”

The recording is the latest in a series of leaked conversations involving Paxton and Washington lobbyists. Late last month, The New York Times obtained audio of Paxton telling a group of D.C. lobbyists that President Donald Trump's midterm convention in Dallas "dropped our numbers."

The latest revelations also include video footage of Paxton attending a New Year's Eve party in Dubai in 2024.

The Wall Street Journal obtained a video of Paxton attending a New Year's Eve party from a luxury high-rise balcony "with two fugitives from U.S. justice and a woman who wasn't his wife."

The Journal identified the two fugitives as Anosh Ahmed and Sameer Suhail, who were indicted on federal health care fraud charges. Records also show that Ahmed donated $190,000 to Paxton's campaign "including $25,000 days after he was indicted."

Democrats also maintain a lead in Kalshi's national Senate control market.

The market gives Democrats a 62% chance of winning control of the Senate, compared with 38% for Republicans.

The takeaway:

Kalshi markets now predict:

Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: JamesTalarico.com

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}