Who is favored to win the Texas Senate race?

Kalshi’s market gives James Talarico (D) a 63% chance and Ken Paxton (R) 37%. Polls show a closer race than the market implies.

What do the polls say about the Talarico–Paxton race?

A CBS News/YouGov poll shows Talarico at 51% and Paxton at 49% among likely voters, with a 3.5-point margin of error. A University of Houston poll shows 48% to 46%.

Who is spending money and campaigning in the final stretch of the Texas Senate race??

Talarico is on a 21-city tour through Election Day. Elon Musk donated $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, which passed that amount to Texas PAC, an outside group supporting Paxton.

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Texas Senate odds: Talarico leads Paxton 63% to 37% as early voting begins

Texas Senate odds: Talarico leads Paxton 63% to 37% as early voting begins

James Talarico launches a statewide campaign tour as outside groups spend heavily to support Ken Paxton.

By Danny Gallagher

Oct 20, 2026

Texas Senate odds: Talarico leads Paxton 63% to 37% as early voting begins

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